Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Programming game?

Choices Matter + Programming

Of 20 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Programming game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×317 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 38 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $9.3k → $23k → $5.8k → $2.5k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,291)
Top 5% $151k (exactly $150,774)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 47
Announced 38
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Programming; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 984 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $9.2k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hacknet 2015 · $5.1M Auto Rogue 2025 · $151k Tron: Identity 2023 · $123k Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love 2026 · $68k Open Sorcery 2017 · $37k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Auto Rogue $6.99 719 91% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 定期的な宝物
Tron: Identity older $14.99 274 79% 8.2k $123k (exactly $123,218) Bithell Games
Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love $29.99 76 92% 2.3k $68k (exactly $68,377) ASa Project
Open Sorcery older $3.99 310 98% 9.3k $37k (exactly $37,107) Abigail Corfman
Web Host Simulator · EA $24.99 42 26% 1.3k $31k (exactly $31,487) Chibum
Cyber Warrior $19.99 39 84% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,388) Dunke Games
Open Sorcery: Sea++ older $14.99 52 92% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Abigail Corfman
How To Hack In? · EA older $12.99 41 87% 1.2k $16k (exactly $15,978) Red Buffalo Interactive
CHAQS older $9.90 50 76% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,850) nomorevalid
IT Startup: Tech Fodder $9.99 31 96% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Kupilas Media
Torrent Empire $7.99 24 62% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) Steel Games
AI is Home - Survival Thriller $7.99 23 60% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) pressanykey
Bit ESC $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Essssam
MicroFab $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Flirp
ZIRQUITZ $6.99 5 60% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Surrogate of Sorrow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.