Do I ship it?

Games › Choices Matter › Choices Matter + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Tabletop game?

Choices Matter + Tabletop

Of 123 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 177 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, level with the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $110; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×271 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 177 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 177 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choices Matter + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 123
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $14k → $3.6k → $1.9k → $1.6k → $2.7k → $210 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choices Matter + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 123
Bottom 30% $101 (exactly $101)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,869)
Top 5% $129k (exactly $128,614)
Developers, 2 yr 123
Released games 298
Announced 177
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choices Matter, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Board Game
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 38,059 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $110, median $480, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $110. 9 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 177 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds108 devs · median $58k · 91 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair18 devs · median $4.7k · 15 announced
  3. + SportsFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced
  4. + RhythmFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  5. + Hidden ObjectFair261 devs · median $802 · 273 announced
  6. + TriviaFair26 devs · median $599 · 30 announced
  7. + Board GameFair119 devs · median $479 · 150 announced
  8. + RacingFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  9. + ChessFair19 devs · median $419 · 20 announced
  10. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  11. + RomePoor odds10 devs · median $160k · 19 announced
  12. + World War IPoor odds10 devs · median $57k · 19 announced

All 243 pairs on the Choices Matter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sultan's Game 2025 · $19M Esoteric Ebb 2026 · $6.5M Cultist Simulator 2018 · $6.3M TRIANGLE STRATEGY 2022 · $5.8M Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition 2013 · $5.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Esoteric Ebb $24.99 8,719 95% 262k $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) Christoffer Bodegård
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
TRIANGLE STRATEGY older $59.99 3,239 78% 97k $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) Square Enix, ARTDINK
Baldur's Gate II: Enhanced Edition older $19.99 9,478 92% 284k $5.7M (exactly $5,683,957) Beamdog
The Life and Suffering of Sir Brante older $19.99 8,151 89% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,888,155) Sever, Schisma Games
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
Card Cultivation $14.99 694 70% 21k $312k (exactly $312,092) DarkIndex
Crown Gambit $17.99 428 94% 13k $231k (exactly $230,992) WILD WITS GAMES
Passant: A Chess Roguelike $11.99 363 79% 11k $131k (exactly $130,571) Marc Makes Games
Marisa of Liartop Mountain $14.99 286 84% 8.6k $129k (exactly $128,614) Alliance Arts, UnknownX
Veritas Tales: Witch of the Dark Castle $16.99 227 86% 6.8k $116k (exactly $115,702) ジギタリス出版
Duskpunk $19.99 171 91% 5.1k $103k (exactly $102,549) Clockwork Bird, James Patton
Worlds of Aria $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Ludogram

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.