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Should I ship a PvE Choices Matter game?
PvE + Choices Matter
Of 328 developers who shipped a PvE Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 751 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×264 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 751 games are announced against 210 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $150 (exactly $150) |
|---|---|
| Median | $599 (exactly $599) |
| Top 25% | $4.6k (exactly $4,587) |
| Top 5% | $166k (exactly $165,568) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 328 |
| Released games | 670 |
| Announced | 751 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvE
- effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE, Choices Matter; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy, RPG
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 48,082 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 148 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 751 games are announced against 210 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Company of Heroes 3 2023 · $44M 
The Forever Winter 2024 · EA · $19M 
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters 2022 · $15M 
Sins of a Solar Empire II 2024 · $11M 
King Arthur: Knight's Tale 2022 · $9.1M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Company of Heroes 3 | older | $59.99 | 24,516 59% | 735k | $44M (exactly $44,121,445) | Relic Entertainment |
| | The Forever Winter | · EA | $29.99 | 21,376 68% | 641k | $19M (exactly $19,231,987) | Fun Dog Studios |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters | older | $44.99 | 11,426 76% | 343k | $15M (exactly $15,421,672) | Complex Games |
| | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
| | King Arthur: Knight's Tale | older | $44.99 | 6,722 83% | 202k | $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) | NeocoreGames |
 | Crab Champions | · EA older | $9.99 | 26,546 97% | 796k | $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) | Noisestorm |
 | Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days | · EA | $24.99 | 9,049 89% | 271k | $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) | PikPok |
 | F1® Manager 2024 | older | $34.99 | 5,554 83% | 167k | $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) | Frontier Developments |
 | Rogue: Genesia | $14.99 | 8,111 90% | 243k | $3.6M (exactly $3,647,517) | Ouadi Huard | |
 | Inkbound | older | $29.99 | 3,592 86% | 108k | $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) | Shiny Shoe |
 | Sunderfolk | $49.99 | 1,890 93% | 57k | $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) | Secret Door | |
 | EverSiege: Untold Ages | $19.99 | 1,906 68% | 57k | $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) | Tindalos Interactive | |
 | The Thing: Remastered | $29.99 | 1,203 89% | 36k | $1.1M (exactly $1,082,339) | Nightdive Studios, Computer Artworks | |
 | Dwarven Realms | $9.99 | 2,850 81% | 86k | $854k (exactly $854,145) | Crater Studios | |
 | Shadowveil: Legend of The Five Rings | $24.99 | 469 74% | 14k | $352k (exactly $351,609) | Palindrome Interactive | |
 | Paranormal Cleanup | $9.99 | 961 88% | 29k | $288k (exactly $288,012) | Manic Mice | |
 | Expeditions: Samurai | · EA | $29.99 | 267 59% | 8.0k | $240k (exactly $240,220) | Campfire Cabal |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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