Do I ship it?

GamesHuntingHunting + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Hunting game?

Hunting + Choices Matter

Only 18 developers shipped a Choices Matter Hunting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Survivalist: Invisible Strain, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 17 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hunting + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $0 → $191k → $299 → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hunting + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $43,451)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 46
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hunting
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Hunting, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Character Customization, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,227 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $300, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 4 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hunting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds19 devs · median $33k · 29 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds24 devs · median $29k · 70 announced
  3. + Co-opPoor odds30 devs · median $22k · 58 announced
  4. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds19 devs · median $22k · 29 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds31 devs · median $18k · 56 announced
  6. + AgriculturePoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 20 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds37 devs · median $12k · 77 announced
  8. + MagicPoor odds10 devs · median $9.0k · 20 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds76 devs · median $5.7k · 128 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $4.8k · 79 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds50 devs · median $4.8k · 116 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds11 devs · median $4.8k · 11 announced

All 72 pairs on the Hunting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
The Red Lantern older $24.99 934 83% 28k $700k (exactly $700,220) Timberline Studio
Sensual Adventures - Treasure Island · EA $29.99 303 81% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) Puppetmaster3dx
The Lightkeeper $7.99 1,081 81% 32k $259k (exactly $259,116) Darkphobia Games
Cattle Country $18.99 335 86% 10k $191k (exactly $190,849) Castle Pixel, LLC.
Slavania older $15.99 202 61% 6.1k $97k (exactly $96,899) FrostLeaf Games LLC
Thousand Threads older $19.99 92 84% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Seamount
FREE DUROV $3.99 363 90% 11k $43k (exactly $43,451) RASKUMAR TEAM
Welcome to Planet E1d0r4d0! $8.99 119 68% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,094) LuluGames
Spearfishing Simulator $7.99 4 50% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Riv3r
Disharmony $4.99 5 80% 150 $748 (exactly $748) 7Eagle
Pro Tukey Hunting $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) PSR Outdoors
Monster Hunting Party $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Contradicted Canine

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.