Do I ship it?

Games › Loot › Loot + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Choices Matter game?

Loot + Choices Matter

Of 52 developers who shipped a Loot Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×894 the market median. Revenue is up 700% on the market; 136 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 700% on the market, 136 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $14k → $17k → $150 → $269 → $9.0k → $1.6k (still earning) → $480 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,313)
Top 5% $561k (exactly $561,226)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 116
Announced 136
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 700% on the market, supply 170% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Action RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 10,092 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Grim Dawn 2016 · $70M Kingdoms of Amalur: Re-Reckoning 2020 · $7.6M Inkbound 2024 · $3.2M Hell Clock 2025 · $2.1M GOD FORSAKEN 2026 · $725k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Grim Dawn older $24.99 92,979 93% 2.8M $70M (exactly $69,706,356) Crate Entertainment
Kingdoms of Amalur: Re-Reckoning older $39.99 6,305 78% 189k $7.6M (exactly $7,564,108) KAIKO, Big Huge Games, 38 Studios
Inkbound older $29.99 3,592 86% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,231,722) Shiny Shoe
Hell Clock $19.99 3,535 82% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) Rogue Snail
GOD FORSAKEN $13.99 1,728 67% 52k $725k (exactly $725,242) insight studio
Lootbound $14.99 1,248 77% 37k $561k (exactly $561,226) ArtDock
Svarog's Dream older $21.00 888 89% 27k $559k (exactly $559,440) VI Game Forge
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
The Use of Life $19.99 764 90% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games
Thick As Thieves $4.99 1,106 65% 33k $166k (exactly $165,568) OtherSide Entertainment
Blood Dungeon $9.99 453 89% 14k $136k (exactly $135,764) Messhof
Din's Champion $19.99 160 85% 4.8k $96k (exactly $95,952) Soldak Entertainment
Pale Coins $9.99 307 93% 9.2k $92k (exactly $92,008) Lukas Irzl
Titans of the Past $24.99 108 83% 3.2k $81k (exactly $80,968) Devil's Dozen Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.