Games › Social Deduction › Social Deduction + Choices Matter
Should I ship a Choices Matter Social Deduction game?
Social Deduction + Choices Matter
Only 14 developers shipped a Choices Matter Social Deduction game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, DreadHaunt, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630. Revenue is down 80% on the market, with 16 games announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $899 (exactly $899) |
| Top 25% | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) |
| Top 5% | $23k (exactly $23,388) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Social Deduction
- effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Social Deduction, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Dialogue Heavy, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 77% positive over 226 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 16 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Social Deduction with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SurvivalFair
- + PsychologicalFair
- + SimulationFair
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + Board GameLong shot
- + Survival HorrorPoor odds
- + HorrorPoor odds
- + AdventurePoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + PvPPoor odds
- + RPGPoor odds
- + ActionPoor odds
Comparable games
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition 2020 · $1.0M 
Project Planet - Earth vs Humanity 2023 · $271k 
DreadHaunt 2024 · $23k 
BUNKER: RED FLAG 2026 · EA · $14k 
Nephilim 2023 · $8.2k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition | older | $19.99 | 1,705 71% | 51k | $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) | Dire Wolf |
| | Project Planet - Earth vs Humanity | older | $24.99 | 361 78% | 11k | $271k (exactly $270,642) | Fifth Harbour Studios |
| | DreadHaunt | $19.99 | 39 64% | 1.2k | $23k (exactly $23,388) | Digital Happiness | |
| | BUNKER: RED FLAG | · EA | $4.99 | 93 79% | 2.8k | $14k (exactly $13,922) | Red Flag Team |
| | Nephilim | older | $16.99 | 16 43% | 480 | $8.2k (exactly $8,155) | Fantasista Co.,Ltd |
 | PENTALOOP -ペンタループ- | $3.99 | 55 72% | 1.7k | $6.6k (exactly $6,584) | イバラユーギ×ひろゆ～プロジェクト | |
 | Zombie Within | older | $9.99 | 21 66% | 630 | $6.3k (exactly $6,294) | NewGen |
 | Killer Inside Us | older | $2.99 | 19 73% | 570 | $1.7k (exactly $1,704) | Source Byte Sp. z o.o. |
 | Beguile | $4.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) | coeda | |
 | Guillotine | older | $4.99 | 10 10% | 300 | $1.5k (exactly $1,497) | Felipe Rodrigues |
 | NMO - No More Operators | · EA | $11.99 | 4 50% | 120 | $1.4k (exactly $1,439) | Playloop Studios |
 | Reality Rivals: The First Season | $9.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Americode | |
 | Wolftown | $9.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $899 (exactly $899) | Portponky | |
 | Outplay | · EA | $2.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $897 (exactly $897) | nghtmrz |
 | Disharmony | $4.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $748 (exactly $748) | 7Eagle | |
 | The Hidden Camp | $6.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $629 (exactly $629) | E and B Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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