Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic game?

Post-apocalyptic

Of 1,325 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,926 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $980k, ×1565 the market median. Revenue is up 60% on the market; 2,926 games are announced against 768 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 2,926 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,325
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $1.8k → $2.2k → $2.4k → $1.9k → $1.7k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,325
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,797)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,279)
Top 5% $983k (exactly $983,060)
Developers, 2 yr 1,325
Released games 3,973
Announced 2,926
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,278,924 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $980k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 690 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,926 games are announced against 768 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Post-apocalyptic

146 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. PvE + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.5k 267 devs
  2. Collectathon + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.5k 36 devs
  3. Combat + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.4k 315 devs
  4. Physics + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.4k 91 devs
  5. Multiple Endings + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.3k 118 devs
  6. Platformer + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.3k 95 devs
  7. Shooter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 424 devs
  8. Choose Your Own Adventure + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 66 devs
  9. 2D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 16 devs
  10. Card Game + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 42 devs
  11. Precision Platformer + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 23 devs
  12. Perma Death + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 61 devs
  13. Puzzle + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.1k 130 devs
  14. 2D Platformer + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.1k 100 devs
  15. Racing + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.1k 31 devs
  16. Auto Battler + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.1k 17 devs
  17. Bullet Hell + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.0k 121 devs
  18. Sports + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $959 14 devs
  19. Destruction + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $899 32 devs
  20. Hero Shooter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $899 24 devs
  21. Hidden Object + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $897 53 devs
  22. Incremental + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $839 43 devs
  23. Swordplay + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $836 9 devs
  24. Logic + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $719 33 devs
  25. Tanks + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $719 13 devs
  26. Creature Collector + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $718 18 devs
  27. Arena Shooter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $600 59 devs
  28. Top-Down Shooter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $599 126 devs
  29. Point & Click + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $599 51 devs
  30. Dynamic Narration + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $537 9 devs
  31. Score Attack + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $479 39 devs
  32. Arcade + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $449 170 devs
  33. Shoot 'Em Up + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $359 115 devs
  34. Board Game + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $299 15 devs
  35. Spectacle fighter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $269 13 devs
  36. Mystery Dungeon + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $119 10 devs
  37. Real-Time with Pause + Post-apocalyptic Dead $36k 7 devs
  38. MMORPG + Post-apocalyptic Dead $33k 7 devs
  39. Battle Royale + Post-apocalyptic Dead $2.5k 8 devs
  40. Flight + Post-apocalyptic Dead $1.8k 5 devs
  41. 3D Platformer + Post-apocalyptic Dead $479 57 devs
  42. 4 Player Local + Post-apocalyptic Dead $450 11 devs
  43. 3D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic Dead $300 14 devs
  44. Word Game + Post-apocalyptic Dead $179 11 devs
  45. Level Editor + Post-apocalyptic Dead $150 14 devs
  46. Runner + Post-apocalyptic Dead $150 13 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B DayZ 2018 · $582M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Project Zomboid · EA older $24.99 364,830 94% 11M $274M (exactly $273,513,051) The Indie Stone
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Left 4 Dead 2 older $9.99 816,316 97% 24M $245M (exactly $244,649,905) Valve
Resident Evil Requiem $69.99 106,931 95% 3.2M $225M (exactly $224,523,021) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
The Last of Us™ Part II Remastered $49.99 34,252 90% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,367,724) Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron… (Naughty Dog LLC, Nixxes Software, Iron Galaxy Studios)
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.