Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Post-apocalyptic

Of 36 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $64k, ×103 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 68 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 68 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $538 → $6.4k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $10k (still earning) → $3.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,496)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $64,820)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 75
Announced 68
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Crafting, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,314 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Submerged: Hidden Depths older $29.99 741 89% 22k $667k (exactly $666,678) Uppercut Games Pty Ltd
Night Raider older $5.99 1,908 85% 57k $343k (exactly $342,868) TSUKUYOMIC
Penko Park older $13.99 602 98% 18k $253k (exactly $252,659) Ghostbutter
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
Super Kiwi 64 older $2.99 1,805 95% 54k $162k (exactly $161,908) Siactro
[DE:]Fanastasis older $19.99 177 96% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) Mosamosa
BARRICADEZ older $18.99 117 78% 3.5k $67k (exactly $66,655) Fly Penguin inc.
Deadline Escape · EA $4.99 433 84% 13k $65k (exactly $64,820) DeadlineEscape
Panthalassa $13.99 98 97% 2.9k $41k (exactly $41,131) Meia Calça
Control Craft 2 older $4.99 274 72% 8.2k $41k (exactly $41,018) Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik
Tasty Planet: Final Bite $12.99 100 90% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,970) Dingo Games
RoadOut $14.99 34 97% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Rastrolabs Game Studio
Alien Apocalypse · EA $17.99 27 48% 810 $15k (exactly $14,572) Umbu Games
Mad Merchant $5.99 72 79% 2.2k $13k (exactly $12,938) Ravenholm Interactive
Duneborn $11.99 35 51% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,590) A.P Games
Nova Antarctica $24.99 14 78% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) RexLabo, PARCO GAMES
尸来运转-Lucky Zombie Survival $3.99 86 86% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,294) Kwing works

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.