Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Physics game?

Physics + Post-apocalyptic

Of 91 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 189 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $980k, ×1565 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 189 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 189 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $47k → $449 → $4.4k → $719 → $2.0k → $958 → $945 (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Top 5% $983k (exactly $983,060)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 208
Announced 189
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Survival
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 400,805 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $980k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 189 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

R.E.P.O. 2025 · EA · $102M Timberborn 2026 · $40M Rain World 2017 · $35M Content Warning 2024 · $17M The Last Caretaker 2025 · EA · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
Content Warning older $7.99 72,444 93% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,364,827) Zorro, Wilnyl, Philip, thePetHen, Skog
The Last Caretaker · EA $34.99 13,178 86% 395k $14M (exactly $13,832,947) Channel37 Ltd
Dome Keeper older $17.99 18,976 92% 569k $10M (exactly $10,241,347) Bippinbits
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
HighFleet older $29.99 7,024 88% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,319,493) Konstantin Koshutin
The Entropy Centre older $19.99 3,359 89% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,014,392) Stubby Games
ALL WILL FALL $29.99 1,262 76% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,135,421) All Parts Connected
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games
GRAIN ROT $9.99 1,845 88% 55k $553k (exactly $552,946) Beck & Branch Games
Zero Caliber 2 Remastered $24.99 433 79% 13k $325k (exactly $324,620) XREAL Games
Z.O.N.A: Origin $19.99 540 83% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) AGaming+
CleanFall · EA $19.99 492 92% 15k $295k (exactly $295,052) Humanyoyo
The Slaverian Trucker $11.99 789 85% 24k $284k (exactly $283,803) SawyerK Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.