Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Post-apocalyptic

Of 57 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic 3D Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 28 developers shipped in the last year and 124 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 890% on the market, 124 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.1k → $449 → $330 → $449 → $299 → $1.8k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,934)
Top 5% $219k (exactly $219,004)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 178
Announced 124
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 890% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Story Rich, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 3,531 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Sunset Overdrive older $19.99 12,082 90% 362k $7.2M (exactly $7,245,575) Insomniac Games, Blind Squirrel Games
ENSLAVED™: Odyssey to the West™ Premium Edition older $19.99 5,789 86% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,471,663) Ninja Theory
Caravan SandWitch older $24.99 2,797 88% 84k $2.1M (exactly $2,096,911) Studio Plane Toast
IfSunSets · EA $19.99 2,284 74% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,369,715) POLYMORPH
ReCore: Definitive Edition older $19.99 1,441 62% 43k $864k (exactly $864,168) Armature Studio, LLC, Comcept
Lifeless Planet Premier Edition older $9.99 2,529 78% 76k $758k (exactly $757,941) Serenity Forge
The Upturned older $9.99 2,482 99% 74k $744k (exactly $743,855) Zeekerss
Disney•Pixar WALL-E older $19.99 1,061 96% 32k $636k (exactly $636,282) Asobo Studio
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Nuclear Epoch $14.99 487 78% 15k $219k (exactly $219,004) Cat Play Studio
Fading Echo $19.99 90 92% 2.7k $54k (exactly $53,973) Emeteria
Ultimate Drummer $5.99 170 98% 5.1k $31k (exactly $30,549) Cool 3D World
Parking Together! $9.99 88 95% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) ENGAWA GAMES
FALL $4.99 153 88% 4.6k $23k (exactly $22,904) 谭浩翔
WHITE CHOCOLATE $3.99 78 94% 2.3k $9.3k (exactly $9,337) Bakery of Games
EagleRoad:WorldRise $9.99 22 90% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) XuJie
Soar: Pillars of Tasneem $19.99 10 70% 300 $6.0k (exactly $5,997) Kimchi Corp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.