Do I ship it?

GamesArena ShooterArena Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Arena Shooter?

Arena Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Of 59 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Arena Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $50k, ×80 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 110 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 110 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arena Shooter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $570 → $807 → $2.7k → $449 → $958 → $599 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arena Shooter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,539)
Top 5% $50k (exactly $50,299)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 207
Announced 110
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arena Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Arena Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, FPS
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $13.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 11,150 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.5k, 1 in 20 over $50k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arena Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + IncrementalFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  2. + DemonsFair54 devs · median $1.3k · 55 announced
  3. + 2D PlatformerFair45 devs · median $809 · 43 announced
  4. + Multiple EndingsFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced
  5. + CollectathonLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 13 announced
  6. + DeckbuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $3.1k · 26 announced
  7. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds75 devs · median $2.3k · 101 announced
  8. + Class-BasedPoor odds19 devs · median $2.2k · 50 announced
  9. + Boomer ShooterPoor odds133 devs · median $1.8k · 165 announced
  10. + Dark FantasyPoor odds59 devs · median $1.7k · 85 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterPoor odds10 devs · median $1.5k · 11 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds88 devs · median $1.4k · 124 announced

All 134 pairs on the Arena Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BRAZILIAN DRUG DEALER 3: I OPENED A PORTAL TO HELL IN THE FAVELA TRYING TO REVIVE MIT AIA I NEED TO CLOSE IT $4.99 7,743 97% 232k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,127) Joeveno
Alien Shooter 2 - The Legend older $14.99 1,087 52% 33k $489k (exactly $488,824) Sigma Team Inc.
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
Kill The Crows older $4.99 2,848 95% 85k $426k (exactly $426,346) 5minlab Corp.
Hellbreach: Vegas older $14.99 504 74% 15k $227k (exactly $226,649) Infinity Ape Studios
Titan Attacks! older $9.99 654 92% 20k $196k (exactly $196,004) Puppygames
LEAP older $14.99 219 52% 6.6k $98k (exactly $98,484) Blue Isle Studios
Alien Shooter 2 - New Era older $9.99 272 50% 8.2k $82k (exactly $81,518) Sigma Team Inc.
#KILLALLZOMBIES older $9.99 258 78% 7.7k $77k (exactly $77,323) Fortell Games
MEATGRINDER older $9.99 248 87% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) Vampire Squid
GUNTOUCHABLES $4.99 336 75% 10k $50k (exactly $50,299) Game Swing
Only Whores Survive 🔞 $9.99 148 61% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,356) BanzaiProject
Survivor Mercs $9.99 147 70% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,056) Wolpertinger Games
Corebreaker · EA $7.99 161 92% 4.8k $39k (exactly $38,592) aQuadiun
OPG: Clan Wars $9.99 101 74% 3.0k $30k (exactly $30,270) Anarchy Games, Street's Game
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry
Absolute Insanity $15.99 57 94% 1.7k $27k (exactly $27,343) Chris Danelon
DOGENSTEIN $4.99 146 73% 4.4k $22k (exactly $21,856) Marc Leclerc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.