Games › MMORPG › MMORPG + Post-apocalyptic
Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic MMORPG?
MMORPG + Post-apocalyptic
Only 7 developers shipped a paid Post-apocalyptic MMORPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, PIONER, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 28 more are announced, ×28 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 10 / 10 build.
Only 1 developer shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $33k against a market of $1.3k. 28 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $30k (exactly $30,270) |
|---|---|
| Median | $33k (exactly $33,267) |
| Top 25% | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) |
| Top 5% | $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 7 |
| Released games | 38 |
| Announced | 28 |
| Effort | 10 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 85% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 50%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- MMORPG
- effort 10 / 10 · low · persistent world servers and a live economy
- Post-apocalyptic
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 10 / 10 · studio only
- Systems
- MMORPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 71% positive over 191,514 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $31k. 3 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 1 developer who shipped in the last year, ×28 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
MMORPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LootPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + MagicPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + FantasyPoor odds
- + Class-BasedPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Character CustomizationPoor odds
- + ExplorationPoor odds
Comparable games
Fallout 76 2020 · $94M 
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ 2016 · $69M 
Last Oasis 2020 · EA · $18M 
PIONER 2025 · EA · $2.9M 
Age of Water 2025 · $2.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Fallout 76 | older | $39.99 | 78,346 74% | 2.4M | $94M (exactly $93,991,696) | Bethesda Game Studios |
| | Tom Clancy’s The Division™ | older | $29.99 | 76,985 72% | 2.3M | $69M (exactly $69,263,404) | Massive Entertainment |
| | Last Oasis | · EA older | $29.99 | 20,443 63% | 613k | $18M (exactly $18,392,567) | Donkey Crew |
| | PIONER | · EA | $29.99 | 3,205 62% | 96k | $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) | GFAGAMES |
| | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio | |
 | Next Day: Survival | older | $9.99 | 8,623 62% | 259k | $2.6M (exactly $2,584,313) | SOFF Games |
 | Xsyon - Prelude | · EA older | $29.99 | 307 69% | 9.2k | $276k (exactly $276,208) | Notorious Games |
 | Afterinfection | $8.99 | 463 56% | 14k | $125k (exactly $124,871) | RePatrick21 | |
 | Ice World | $9.99 | 111 57% | 3.3k | $33k (exactly $33,267) | CoolRabbit Games | |
 | Para Ark | older | $6.99 | 148 91% | 4.4k | $31k (exactly $31,036) | ST Hot Dog King |
 | OPG: Clan Wars | $9.99 | 101 74% | 3.0k | $30k (exactly $30,270) | Anarchy Games, Street's Game | |
 | The Dawn: Sniper's Way | $24.99 | 18 22% | 540 | $13k (exactly $13,495) | PHOSPHORUS GAMES | |
 | Forbidden zone | $4.99 | 3 0% | 90 | $449 (exactly $449) | Karuna |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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