Do I ship it?

GamesMultiple EndingsMultiple Endings + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Multiple Endings game?

Multiple Endings + Post-apocalyptic

Of 118 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 337 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2588 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 337 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 337 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Multiple Endings + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 118
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $1.2k → $11k → $5.1k → $9.6k → $599 → $600 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Multiple Endings + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 118
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,109)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,625,576)
Developers, 2 yr 118
Released games 368
Announced 337
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Multiple Endings
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 211,229 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 7 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 337 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds128 devs · median $65k · 93 announced
  2. + WuxiaFair11 devs · median $230k · 18 announced
  3. + Level EditorFair17 devs · median $8.1k · 23 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair32 devs · median $5.8k · 42 announced
  5. + SuperheroFair15 devs · median $4.5k · 22 announced
  6. + 4 Player LocalFair10 devs · median $3.6k · 10 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  8. + GamblingFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  9. + TriviaFair14 devs · median $1.7k · 15 announced
  10. + Score AttackFair40 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair176 devs · median $598 · 180 announced
  12. + Arena ShooterFair18 devs · median $597 · 16 announced

All 214 pairs on the Multiple Endings page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series older $49.99 36,594 96% 1.1M $55M (exactly $54,880,022) Skybound Games
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
Terminator: Resistance older $39.99 16,665 91% 500k $20M (exactly $19,993,000) Teyon
BlazBlue Entropy Effect older $19.99 30,410 94% 912k $18M (exactly $18,236,877) 91Act
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
ATRI -My Dear Moments- older $20.99 21,411 98% 642k $13M (exactly $13,482,507) Frontwing, 枕
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Into the Radius 2 $39.99 5,253 79% 158k $6.3M (exactly $6,302,024) CM IMMERSIVE
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition $19.99 6,619 65% 199k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) GSC Game World
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Call of Prypiat - Enhanced Edition $19.99 3,273 65% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,962,818) GSC Game World
Desert Stalker · EA $17.99 3,012 95% 90k $1.6M (exactly $1,625,576) Zetan
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Clear Sky - Enhanced Edition $19.99 2,698 59% 81k $1.6M (exactly $1,617,991) GSC Game World
Kemono Teatime $12.99 1,617 95% 49k $630k (exactly $630,145) Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.