Do I ship it?

Games › Arcade › Arcade + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Arcade game?

Arcade + Post-apocalyptic

Of 170 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Arcade game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 247 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $37k, ×60 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 247 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 247 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Arcade + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 170
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $2.8k → $358 → $600 → $449 (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Arcade + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 170
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,397)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $37,781)
Developers, 2 yr 170
Released games 490
Announced 247
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Arcade
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Arcade; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Retro
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 2,753 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $37k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 86 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 247 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Arcade with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair59 devs · median $4.3k · 88 announced
  2. + TrainsFair20 devs · median $3.1k · 16 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair101 devs · median $2.6k · 84 announced
  4. + MiningFair91 devs · median $2.2k · 125 announced
  5. + FaithFair16 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  6. + Turn-BasedFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  7. + EconomyFair199 devs · median $2.1k · 285 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair72 devs · median $2.1k · 61 announced
  9. + DeckbuildingFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  10. + Card BattlerFair68 devs · median $1.9k · 75 announced
  11. + LootFair147 devs · median $1.9k · 215 announced
  12. + VampiresFair34 devs · median $1.9k · 35 announced

All 270 pairs on the Arcade page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Pistol Whip 2019 · $3.2M GTTOD 2017 · EA · $2.7M Fight'N Rage 2017 · $1.5M Wanderer 2022 · $989k Crimsonland 2014 · $884k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pistol Whip older $29.99 3,586 94% 108k $3.2M (exactly $3,226,324) Cloudhead Games Ltd.
GTTOD · EA older $29.99 3,010 87% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,097) Andrew Smith, STUDIO Bare Bones
Fight'N Rage older $19.99 2,557 92% 77k $1.5M (exactly $1,533,433) sebagamesdev
Wanderer older $39.99 824 83% 25k $989k (exactly $988,553) Mighty Eyes
Crimsonland older $13.99 2,107 94% 63k $884k (exactly $884,308) 10tons Ltd
Zombie Driver HD older $9.99 2,770 84% 83k $830k (exactly $830,169) Exor Studios
Cyber Shadow older $19.99 1,294 83% 39k $776k (exactly $776,012) Aarne "MekaSkull" Hunziker
Blazing Chrome older $16.99 1,326 89% 40k $676k (exactly $675,862) JoyMasher
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
BIRDCAGE $13.99 218 97% 6.5k $91k (exactly $91,495) POLYGON BIRD
Odinfall · EA $12.99 194 82% 5.8k $76k (exactly $75,602) Ember Paw Games
Ash & Adam's Existential Treads $6.99 340 92% 10k $71k (exactly $71,298) Ash & Adam's Games
Retrowave 2 $4.99 449 88% 13k $67k (exactly $67,215) RewindApp
Night Slashers: Remake $9.99 164 61% 4.9k $49k (exactly $49,151) Storm Trident S.A.
Survivor Mercs $9.99 147 70% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,056) Wolpertinger Games
Tasty Planet: Final Bite $12.99 100 90% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,970) Dingo Games
Vengeance Hunters $19.99 63 84% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Nalua Studio SLU
Driveloop: Survivors · EA $9.99 96 76% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Stunbyte

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.