Do I ship it?

GamesLogicLogic + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Logic game?

Logic + Post-apocalyptic

Of 33 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×160 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 60 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 60 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Logic + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $16k → $6.5k → $1.0k → $1.9k → $1.0k → $299 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Logic + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,641)
Top 5% $101k (exactly $100,543)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 78
Announced 60
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,899 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.6k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Logic with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LovecraftianFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  2. + City BuilderFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + NoirFair42 devs · median $2.7k · 59 announced
  4. + HackingFair60 devs · median $2.5k · 67 announced
  5. + VampiresFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 14 announced
  6. + DragonsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 8 announced
  7. + Escape RoomFair54 devs · median $2.1k · 44 announced
  8. + Bullet TimeFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  9. + Inventory ManagementFair70 devs · median $1.7k · 74 announced
  10. + TransportationFair29 devs · median $1.7k · 30 announced
  11. + Automobile SimFair20 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + CookingFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced

All 200 pairs on the Logic page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
The Talos Principle 2 older $29.99 12,478 94% 374k $11M (exactly $11,226,457) Croteam
The Talos Principle: Reawakened $39.99 1,085 90% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,301,674) Croteam
The Signal State older $19.99 649 86% 19k $389k (exactly $389,205) Reckoner Industries
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
The Last FARMER $12.99 258 56% 7.7k $101k (exactly $100,543) Geekon
River Towns $14.99 184 89% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) Frogsong Studios
Remoteness older $19.99 98 61% 2.9k $59k (exactly $58,771) KR Games
Rauniot older $14.99 130 86% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,461) Act Normal Games
Kharon's Crypt - Even Death May Die older $14.99 87 96% 2.6k $39k (exactly $39,124) Hebi Lee
60 Minutes to Extinction: Escape Room $7.99 153 82% 4.6k $37k (exactly $36,674) mc2games
Puzzle Depot $19.99 61 100% 1.8k $37k (exactly $36,582) Laughing Manatee Games
Golemworks $6.99 82 90% 2.5k $17k (exactly $17,195) evilalbert
Venice After Dark $19.99 22 90% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Sebastian Grünwald, Weltenwandler Desig… (Sebastian Grünwald, Weltenwandler Designagentur GmbH)
Zombies and Orcs $9.99 16 62% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Gamesforgames
Overencumbered In Another World $4.99 31 100% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Hawaiian Shirt Games
Filtration $19.99 7 100% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Whirligig Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.