Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Post-apocalyptic

Of 66 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×746 the market median. Revenue is up 175% on the market; 116 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 175% on the market, 116 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.1k → $2.2k → $1.2k → $1.9k → $898 → $2.5k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,206)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $469k (exactly $468,744)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 206
Announced 116
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 175% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choices Matter, Visual Novel
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Emotional
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 7,599 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series older $49.99 36,594 96% 1.1M $55M (exactly $54,880,022) Skybound Games
The Walking Dead older $14.99 53,650 97% 1.6M $24M (exactly $24,126,405) Telltale Games
The Walking Dead: Season Two older $14.99 26,848 96% 805k $12M (exactly $12,073,546) Telltale Games
The Walking Dead: The Final Season older $19.99 17,447 94% 523k $10M (exactly $10,462,966) Telltale Games
The Walking Dead: A New Frontier older $14.99 15,482 83% 464k $7.0M (exactly $6,962,255) Telltale Games
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
Muv-Luv Alternative older $39.99 3,447 95% 103k $4.1M (exactly $4,135,366) aNCHOR Inc.
60 Seconds! older $8.99 10,491 84% 315k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,423) Robot Gentleman
The Walking Dead: Michonne - A Telltale Miniseries older $14.99 6,047 80% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,719,336) Telltale Games
SubZero $9.99 2,719 92% 82k $815k (exactly $814,884) Joy Media Limited
Kemono Teatime $12.99 1,617 95% 49k $630k (exactly $630,145) Studio Lalala, Kotoneiro, WHO YOU
Schrödinger's Call $17.99 1,124 94% 34k $607k (exactly $606,623) Acrobatic Chirimenjako
Tides of Tomorrow 🌊 $29.99 521 86% 16k $469k (exactly $468,744) Digixart
Sophie: The Girl From The Zone $14.99 547 87% 16k $246k (exactly $245,986) DavyCroquetteGame
Frostrain 2 $10.99 374 89% 11k $123k (exactly $123,308) nemonan
City 20 · EA $19.99 197 72% 5.9k $118k (exactly $118,141) Untold Games
Time Space Rebuild $4.99 377 76% 11k $56k (exactly $56,437) INNOVATION DREAM
Navigatore of the Ruined World $19.99 62 72% 1.9k $37k (exactly $37,181) Primula
Ragnar $14.99 61 83% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Fimbulwinter Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.