Do I ship it?

GamesMystery DungeonMystery Dungeon + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Mystery Dungeon?

Mystery Dungeon + Post-apocalyptic

Only 10 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Mystery Dungeon in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rusty Rangers, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $120, ×0.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 20% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 28 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Mystery Dungeon + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Mystery Dungeon + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $119 (exactly $119)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 5% $12k (exactly $12,142)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 27
Announced 28
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Mystery Dungeon
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 79% positive over 40 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $120, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $12k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Mystery Dungeon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGStrong odds43 devs · median $21k · 23 announced
  2. + TacticalStrong odds20 devs · median $2.5k · 15 announced
  3. + Auto BattlerFair17 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  4. + RomanceFair12 devs · median $5.8k · 10 announced
  5. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Tactical RPGFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair34 devs · median $1.6k · 35 announced
  8. + SimulationFair57 devs · median $1.3k · 67 announced
  9. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.0k · 18 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair11 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  11. + HistoricalFair7 devs · median $719 · 10 announced
  12. + PhysicsFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced

All 116 pairs on the Mystery Dungeon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Light Remake older $4.99 1,462 87% 44k $219k (exactly $218,861) Носков Сергей
Rusty Rangers $14.99 27 88% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Fantastica!
Lost Scale: Part One older $24.99 10 90% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) Danicy
JongRo 3_Street older $6.99 31 58% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) BlueKim
Imprisoned Hyperion older $14.99 10 80% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Arbatskii Anatolii
Chernobyl inferno older $4.99 30 63% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Shumilin
Frozen Shelter older $3.56 33 66% 990 $3.5k (exactly $3,524) Aktamia, Admia
Dragon Simulator Multiplayer older $0.99 84 72% 2.5k $2.5k (exactly $2,495) FreezeNova
时空梦魇Ⅰ代号608 older $6.99 11 45% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Clock In Dream
SaveShe $69.99 1 100% 30 $2.1k (exactly $2,100) shibahuax
New Heaven · EA $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) PCS-Games, PCS-Games
Desperate Travelers $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Microlab
Apocalypse: The Hunger $1.99 2 0% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Bit Boy Games
Dustline $1.99 2 0% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Dustline Studio
Flooded Lands $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) OpxGaming
United Heist: Facility Zero $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) No more Sleep
Kindled Hope $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) L.V
Mega Load On $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Pavels Makarovs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.