Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Of 126 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 242 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $78k, ×125 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 242 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 242 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 126
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $1.0k → $1.3k → $2.4k → $599 → $629 → $1.7k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 126
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $78,521)
Developers, 2 yr 126
Released games 330
Announced 242
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 5,350 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 242 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
Crimsonland older $13.99 2,107 94% 63k $884k (exactly $884,308) 10tons Ltd
Zombie Driver HD older $9.99 2,770 84% 83k $830k (exactly $830,169) Exor Studios
Tunguska: The Visitation - Final Cut older $14.99 1,682 87% 50k $756k (exactly $756,395) Rotorist Workshop
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Insect Swarm older $6.99 2,491 84% 75k $522k (exactly $522,363) Parallel Portal
FatalZone $6.99 2,125 66% 64k $446k (exactly $445,612) Midhard Games
Splatter - Zombiecalypse Now older $6.99 2,098 89% 63k $440k (exactly $439,951) Dreamworlds
Kill The Crows older $4.99 2,848 95% 85k $426k (exactly $426,346) 5minlab Corp.
Ocean Keeper: Dome Survival $9.99 826 77% 25k $248k (exactly $247,552) RetroStyle Games
Dark Light: Survivor · EA $16.99 346 75% 10k $176k (exactly $176,356) Mirari&Co.
Keep Her Safe · EA $9.99 382 97% 11k $114k (exactly $114,485) Gugu Studio
Demon Hunt · EA $6.99 460 77% 14k $96k (exactly $96,462) Massive Hug
BIRDCAGE $13.99 218 97% 6.5k $91k (exactly $91,495) POLYGON BIRD
Apocalypse Express $9.99 262 81% 7.9k $79k (exactly $78,521) Llamaware Studios
Odinfall · EA $12.99 194 82% 5.8k $76k (exactly $75,602) Ember Paw Games
Ash & Adam's Existential Treads $6.99 340 92% 10k $71k (exactly $71,298) Ash & Adam's Games
No Escape from Madness $11.99 197 60% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,861) qiqin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.