Do I ship it?

Games3D Fighter3D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic 3D Fighter?

3D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic

Only 14 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic 3D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vienkiemis, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 5 developers shipped in the last year and 30 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 30 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $2.2k → $330 → $419 → $478 → $150 → $10k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 5% $17k (exactly $17,147)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 50
Announced 30
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · 3D hit volumes plus the fighting-game tuning load
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
3D Fighter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, FPS
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 102 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $17k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ManagementFair11 devs · median $3.1k · 15 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair34 devs · median $2.1k · 42 announced
  3. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + Choose Your Own AdventureLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  5. + RhythmLong shot9 devs · median $898 · 8 announced
  6. + CollectathonLong shot15 devs · median $598 · 6 announced
  7. + ModernLong shot12 devs · median $539 · 10 announced
  8. + SimulationLong shot83 devs · median $538 · 96 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds55 devs · median $5.0k · 87 announced
  10. + WrestlingPoor odds11 devs · median $2.3k · 21 announced
  11. + Life SimPoor odds10 devs · median $2.1k · 21 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $1.6k · 25 announced

All 126 pairs on the 3D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vienkiemis · EA $12.99 44 100% 1.3k $17k (exactly $17,147) dssob, SMEIVIS
Wasteland with Robots $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Gamesforgames
The Cute Fighter older $10.99 9 66% 270 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) PRO PLAYA DEV
不朽之刃/Blade of Immortality older $6.99 12 66% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Mr. Undead
Dragon Simulator Multiplayer older $0.99 84 72% 2.5k $2.5k (exactly $2,495) FreezeNova
ellie on the ruins older $8.99 8 37% 240 $2.2k (exactly $2,158) alg
HUNDRED FIRES: The rising of red star - EPISODE 3 older $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) David Amado Fernández
CYCO · EA older $13.99 5 100% 150 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) PHOSPHORUS
Hunter Moonstrike : Ai NPCs version $15.99 4 0% 120 $1.9k (exactly $1,919) 10nstudio
Drunken Fist 2: Zombie Hangover older $7.99 6 83% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) DEKLAZON
Mutant Rage · EA $19.99 2 50% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Animas Games
Last Stand: Zombie Horde $1.99 8 100% 240 $478 (exactly $478) KOZGAMES
Kill Them All $6.99 2 50% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Kickback Games
Deltascention $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) MRBartz
Escape From Lava $1.99 5 60% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Muhammet BAYRAKCI
The Christopher Redemption - I $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Secernate Games Private Limited
Trytka $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Trytka Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.