Do I ship it?

GamesHero ShooterHero Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Hero Shooter?

Hero Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Of 24 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Hero Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 9 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.7 the market's $1.3k for a 9 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 41 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 41 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hero Shooter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $240 → $1.4k → $598 → $1.9k → $600 → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hero Shooter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,409)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $11,394)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 107
Announced 41
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hero Shooter
effort 9 / 10 · low · competitive netcode plus hero balance and content cadence
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Hero Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 578 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $11k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hero Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationLong shot31 devs · median $478 · 28 announced
  2. + Bullet HellLong shot59 devs · median $449 · 56 announced
  3. + Boomer ShooterLong shot30 devs · median $210 · 21 announced
  4. + MedievalLong shot10 devs · median $150 · 12 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds20 devs · median $7.2k · 51 announced
  6. + SuperheroPoor odds6 devs · median $6.3k · 11 announced
  7. + Battle RoyalePoor odds9 devs · median $3.6k · 29 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 53 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds27 devs · median $2.3k · 127 announced
  10. + PlatformerPoor odds21 devs · median $2.2k · 33 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds25 devs · median $2.1k · 68 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds27 devs · median $1.6k · 34 announced

All 87 pairs on the Hero Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Infinite Warfare older $59.99 17,489 65% 525k $31M (exactly $31,474,953) Infinity Ward
Crysis 2 Remastered older $29.99 9,034 89% 271k $8.1M (exactly $8,127,890) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Crysis 3 Remastered older $29.99 7,731 88% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,581) Crytek, Saber Interactive
Eximius: Seize the Frontline older $19.99 511 74% 15k $306k (exactly $306,447) Ammobox Studios
Vengeful Guardian: Moonrider older $16.99 489 85% 15k $249k (exactly $249,243) JoyMasher
BE-A Walker older $9.99 651 72% 20k $195k (exactly $195,105) Tequilabyte Studio
MEATGRINDER older $9.99 248 87% 7.4k $74k (exactly $74,326) Vampire Squid
Lust 'n Dead 🔞 $9.99 212 66% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Octo Games
LUST Eternal 🔞 $4.99 212 55% 6.4k $32k (exactly $31,736) Octo Games
KUR older $19.99 46 60% 1.4k $28k (exactly $27,586) Really Ragdoll
Harpagun $19.99 19 73% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Something Random
Wasteland with Robots $9.99 34 94% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Gamesforgames
Idle Zombie Wave: Premium $7.99 21 38% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Ryki Studio
Cat Apocalypse · EA $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Rocket Regios studios
Doom Survivor: Horde Rush $2.99 38 86% 1.1k $3.4k (exactly $3,409) Crazy Studio
Hunter Moonstrike : Ai NPCs version $15.99 4 0% 120 $1.9k (exactly $1,919) 10nstudio
Stickman Zombie Shooting 3D $2.99 21 85% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) Yurii Nikshych
Horror in the forest $29.99 2 0% 60 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Static Production

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.