Do I ship it?

GamesDestructionDestruction + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Destruction game?

Destruction + Post-apocalyptic

Of 32 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Destruction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $48k, ×77 the market median. Revenue is up 1065% on the market; 87 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 1065% on the market, 87 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Destruction + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $1.2k → $65k → $719 → $358 → $1.1k → $6.9k (still earning) → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Destruction + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 5% $49k (exactly $48,568)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 114
Announced 87
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1065% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Destruction; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RTS, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 587 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $48k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Destruction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Space SimFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + ModernFair26 devs · median $1.6k · 28 announced
  3. + God GameFair19 devs · median $899 · 20 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $719 · 14 announced
  5. + Hack and SlashPoor odds19 devs · median $43k · 57 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $26k · 22 announced
  7. + CapitalismPoor odds17 devs · median $15k · 46 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds37 devs · median $13k · 102 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds50 devs · median $11k · 113 announced
  10. + Automobile SimPoor odds22 devs · median $9.0k · 44 announced
  11. + ManagementPoor odds36 devs · median $6.1k · 129 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds22 devs · median $6.0k · 46 announced

All 139 pairs on the Destruction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
Angel at Dusk older $14.99 1,676 98% 50k $754k (exactly $753,697) Akiragoya
Splatter - Zombiecalypse Now older $6.99 2,098 89% 63k $440k (exactly $439,951) Dreamworlds
Doomsday Hunters older $15.99 703 89% 21k $337k (exactly $337,229) Moregames
Vengeful Guardian: Moonrider older $16.99 489 85% 15k $249k (exactly $249,243) JoyMasher
Post Apocalyptic Mayhem older $9.99 773 87% 23k $232k (exactly $231,668) Steel Monkeys
Tasty Planet Forever older $12.99 352 87% 11k $137k (exactly $137,174) Dingo Games
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Battlecruisers older $9.99 386 83% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) Mecha Weka
Apocalyptic cat older $29.99 101 84% 3.0k $91k (exactly $90,870) Galactic Geckon
Masks of the Void: Origins $14.99 108 97% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) ROLLDBOX GAMES
Red Chaos - The Strict Order · EA $17.99 79 81% 2.4k $43k (exactly $42,636) Squarecut Games
Tasty Planet: Final Bite $12.99 100 90% 3.0k $39k (exactly $38,970) Dingo Games
Maelstrom: The Battle for Earth Begins Enhanced $6.99 33 75% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) KDV Games
Beyond Solar · EA $9.99 17 88% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) COREGAME Studios
Breakfall: Nuclear Winter · EA $17.99 7 28% 210 $3.8k (exactly $3,778) Dominik Geuer
1989 After the War $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) SEEP
Endzone Girls $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Aozora
Apocalypse Factory · EA $9.99 8 50% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) Mind Leak

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.