Do I ship it?

Games2D Fighter2D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic 2D Fighter?

2D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic

Only 16 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic 2D Fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, PlatyGuard: Swarm Slayer, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $52k, ×84 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 31 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
2D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $128k → $899 → $150 → $28k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 2D Fighter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,891)
Top 5% $53k (exactly $52,615)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 54
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

2D Fighter
effort 5 / 10 · low · frame-precise animation and rollback netcode
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
2D Fighter
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 438 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $52k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

2D Fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds8 devs · median $4.0k · 6 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair11 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  3. + Card BattlerFair10 devs · median $1.0k · 11 announced
  4. + DeckbuildingFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Auto BattlerFair16 devs · median $719 · 19 announced
  6. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $599 · 18 announced
  7. + RhythmFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  8. + SimulationFair51 devs · median $598 · 55 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair16 devs · median $538 · 13 announced
  10. + ManagementFair10 devs · median $449 · 14 announced
  11. + SuperheroLong shot11 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  12. + Resource ManagementLong shot13 devs · median $390 · 14 announced

All 129 pairs on the 2D Fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BlazBlue Entropy Effect older $19.99 30,410 94% 912k $18M (exactly $18,236,877) 91Act
Unsouled older $19.99 265 72% 8.0k $159k (exactly $158,920) Megusta Game
Duelists of Eden older $4.99 856 95% 26k $128k (exactly $128,143) Thomas Moon Kang
PlatyGuard: Swarm Slayer $14.99 117 74% 3.5k $53k (exactly $52,615) ChillyRoom
Night Slashers: Remake $9.99 164 61% 4.9k $49k (exactly $49,151) Storm Trident S.A.
Vengeance Hunters $19.99 63 84% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Nalua Studio SLU
Crazy Flasher 7 Mercenary Empire(stand-alone Version) older $3.99 261 52% 7.8k $31k (exactly $31,242) Andy Law
BAYANI - Fighting Game · EA older $15.99 61 83% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) Ranida Games
Ultra Space Battle Brawl older $9.99 96 81% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Mojiken
FIGHTING GIRL YURI $29.99 31 54% 930 $28k (exactly $27,891) UMAI NEKO
Vessels of Decay $17.99 24 50% 720 $13k (exactly $12,953) Simon Jakobsson, Aurora Punks
Heatwave $10.00 21 95% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,300) Monochromesoft
Skullhunter A Worm's Tale $7.99 10 100% 300 $2.4k (exactly $2,397) Oliver Arett
Mutant Rage · EA $19.99 2 50% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Animas Games
Anarkade $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Pixelatom
The Ape Tales: An Epic Adventure Game $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Roker Games Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.