Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic PvE game?

PvE + Post-apocalyptic

Of 267 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 688 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2016 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 688 games are announced against 159 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 688 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 267
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.8k → $1.2k → $3.6k → $899 → $1.9k → $2.2k (still earning) → $750 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 267
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,663)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 267
Released games 690
Announced 688
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Survival
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 445,290 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 135 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 688 games are announced against 159 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Dying Light older $24.99 373,413 95% 11M $280M (exactly $279,947,726) Techland
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Killing Floor 2 older $29.99 87,158 88% 2.6M $78M (exactly $78,416,053) Tripwire Interactive
REMNANT II® older $49.99 46,219 82% 1.4M $69M (exactly $69,314,634) Gunfire Games
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Dead Island 2 older $49.99 23,309 77% 699k $35M (exactly $34,956,507) Dambuster Studios
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
World War Z older $29.99 24,897 82% 747k $22M (exactly $22,399,831) Saber Interactive Inc
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Survive the Nights $19.99 4,719 68% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) a2z Interactive
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.