Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Platformer?

Platformer + Post-apocalyptic

Of 95 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 246 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×879 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 246 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 246 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 95
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $449 → $1.2k → $748 → $2.7k → $2.2k → $1.0k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Platformer + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 95
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,337)
Top 5% $552k (exactly $552,005)
Developers, 2 yr 95
Released games 331
Announced 246
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, 2D Platformer
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Side Scroller, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 12,465 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.3k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 246 games are announced against 52 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
BlazBlue Entropy Effect older $19.99 30,410 94% 912k $18M (exactly $18,236,877) 91Act
FAR: Lone Sails older $14.99 24,474 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,005,958) Okomotive
Chained Together older $4.99 54,747 89% 1.6M $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) Anegar Games, Lab42
Deadlight older $14.99 9,386 78% 282k $4.2M (exactly $4,220,884) Tequila Works, S.L.
Dungeon Munchies older $19.99 6,596 97% 198k $4.0M (exactly $3,955,621) maJAJa
ENSLAVED™: Odyssey to the West™ Premium Edition older $19.99 5,789 86% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,471,663) Ninja Theory
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
FAR: Changing Tides older $19.99 5,077 92% 152k $3.0M (exactly $3,044,677) Okomotive
The Final Station older $14.99 6,739 88% 202k $3.0M (exactly $3,030,528) DO MY BEST
Doloc Town $19.99 3,166 94% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,898,650) RedSaw Games Studio
The Devil Within: Satgat $24.99 795 78% 24k $596k (exactly $596,012) Newcore Games
Iron Meat $19.99 982 96% 29k $589k (exactly $588,905) Ivan Valeryevich Suvorov, Retroware
OVIS LOOP · EA $16.99 1,083 88% 32k $552k (exactly $552,005) LIFUEL
Shantae Advance: Risky Revolution $24.99 267 85% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) WayForward, Limited Run Games
INAYAH - Life after Gods $15.99 230 71% 6.9k $110k (exactly $110,331) Exogenesis Studios
Kentum $17.99 172 75% 5.2k $93k (exactly $92,828) Tlön Industries
BioMenace Remastered $14.99 186 99% 5.6k $84k (exactly $83,644) Rigel Gameworks
PlatyGuard: Swarm Slayer $14.99 117 74% 3.5k $53k (exactly $52,615) ChillyRoom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.