Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Sports game?

Sports + Post-apocalyptic

Only 14 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, FPV Labs - Drone Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $62k, ×99 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 20 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $239 → $719 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $3.9k (exactly $3,896)
Top 5% $62k (exactly $62,369)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 36
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 171 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $960, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $62k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Zombie Driver HD older $9.99 2,770 84% 83k $830k (exactly $830,169) Exor Studios
DeathSprint 66 older $19.99 495 83% 15k $297k (exactly $296,852) Sumo Digital
Bloodsports.TV older $9.99 255 83% 7.7k $76k (exactly $76,424) Toadman Interactive, Fatshark
FPV Labs - Drone Simulator · EA $19.99 104 67% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) FPVLabs
[TDA00] Muv-Luv Unlimited: THE DAY AFTER - Episode 00 REMASTERED older $14.99 131 83% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) aNCHOR Inc., fuzz, Inc.
[TDA02] Muv-Luv Unlimited: THE DAY AFTER - Episode 02 REMASTERED older $24.99 66 84% 2.0k $49k (exactly $49,480) aNCHOR Inc., fuzz, Inc.
BAYANI - Fighting Game · EA older $15.99 61 83% 1.8k $29k (exactly $29,262) Ranida Games
Ultra Space Battle Brawl older $9.99 96 81% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) Mojiken
Dunk Lords older $9.99 42 80% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) Story Fort LLC
Wild Ice $19.99 17 100% 510 $10k (exactly $10,195) Journey Bound Games
WATTGAMES · EA $24.99 13 84% 390 $9.7k (exactly $9,746) TripleScience Software
Difficult times $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Gamesforgames
Wreckage · EA $12.99 5 80% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Jupiter Lighthouse Games
Rough Rivals $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) Constantin Roussel
The Long Drive Badland $15.99 2 100% 60 $959 (exactly $959) TinyBig
Warranty Not Included · EA $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) VRXtra
Left Fore Dead: Zombie Battle Golf $7.99 3 66% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Maple Taco
Ball & Gun · EA $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) NVZN Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.