Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Card Game?

Card Game + Post-apocalyptic

Of 42 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×196 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 87 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 87 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $328k → $34k → $6.7k → $13k → $719 → $539 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $31,784)
Top 5% $123k (exactly $123,308)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 93
Announced 87
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Card Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Card Battler
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 3,097 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beneath Oresa older $24.99 1,122 78% 34k $841k (exactly $841,163) Broken Spear Inc.
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
Death Roads: Tournament older $14.99 729 80% 22k $328k (exactly $327,831) The Knights of Unity
Shambles: Sons of Apocalypse $19.99 340 77% 10k $204k (exactly $203,898) EXLIX
Ancient Enemy older $16.99 386 89% 12k $197k (exactly $196,744) Grey Alien Games
Draft of Darkness older $14.99 336 94% 10k $151k (exactly $151,099) Crawly Games
Duelists of Eden older $4.99 856 95% 26k $128k (exactly $128,143) Thomas Moon Kang
Frostrain 2 $10.99 374 89% 11k $123k (exactly $123,308) nemonan
DIMENSION REIGN - ROGUELIKE DECKBUILDER · EA older $17.99 207 67% 6.2k $112k (exactly $111,718) ScopeNext Inc
Snow Ash $14.99 179 73% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Ember Studio
Worlds Upon The Wind $9.99 238 99% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) Max Shawabkeh
Project Afterfall · EA $19.99 80 75% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Voice of Belldona · EA $11.99 117 72% 3.5k $42k (exactly $42,085) StoryCropStudio
Meteorfall: Rustbowl Rumble $14.99 93 91% 2.8k $42k (exactly $41,822) Slothwerks
ZombieCards $5.99 232 48% 7.0k $42k (exactly $41,690) HotScent

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.