Do I ship it?

GamesRacingRacing + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Racing game?

Racing + Post-apocalyptic

Of 31 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Racing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2016 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 62 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 62 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Racing + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $2.9k → $2.7k → $9.7k → $3.1k → $539 (still earning) → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Racing + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,496)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 89
Announced 62
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Racing; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Driving, Open World, Action
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 22,319 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Racing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CapitalismStrong odds14 devs · median $8.6k · 7 announced
  2. + ModernFair32 devs · median $3.3k · 34 announced
  3. + TransportationFair39 devs · median $2.3k · 35 announced
  4. + AutomationFair11 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair8 devs · median $1.8k · 7 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair44 devs · median $748 · 42 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair11 devs · median $657 · 10 announced
  8. + Time ManipulationFair10 devs · median $599 · 12 announced
  9. + IdlerFair19 devs · median $505 · 13 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair51 devs · median $449 · 54 announced
  11. + City BuilderLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds14 devs · median $34k · 37 announced

All 165 pairs on the Racing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mad Max older $19.99 57,651 91% 1.7M $35M (exactly $34,573,305) Avalanche Studios
The Long Drive · EA older $15.99 50,184 88% 1.5M $24M (exactly $24,073,265) Genesz
RAGE 2 older $39.99 14,019 64% 421k $17M (exactly $16,818,594) id Software, Avalanche Studios
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
RAGE older $9.99 12,230 76% 367k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,331) id Software
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
UNDER the SAND - a road trip simulator older $19.99 1,556 78% 47k $933k (exactly $933,133) IndieMax
Zombie Driver HD older $9.99 2,770 84% 83k $830k (exactly $830,169) Exor Studios
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
Hard Truck Apocalypse / Ex Machina older $7.99 2,426 83% 73k $582k (exactly $581,512) Targem Games
The Slaverian Trucker $11.99 789 85% 24k $284k (exactly $283,803) SawyerK Games
Long Drive North: Co-Op RV Simulator · EA $14.99 254 41% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Mindflair Games LTD
Retrowave 2 $4.99 449 88% 13k $67k (exactly $67,215) RewindApp
RoadOut $14.99 34 97% 1.0k $15k (exactly $15,290) Rastrolabs Game Studio
WATTGAMES · EA $24.99 13 84% 390 $9.7k (exactly $9,746) TripleScience Software
Apocalypse Truck Simulator $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Festival of Delusion
Road Defense Racing $3.99 36 97% 1.1k $4.3k (exactly $4,309) Minicactus Games
Octopus Goulash $12.99 10 70% 300 $3.9k (exactly $3,897) Alessio Serenellini

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.