Do I ship it?

GamesRunnerRunner + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Runner?

Runner + Post-apocalyptic

Only 13 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Runner in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Retrowave 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 37 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 37 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Runner + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $58k → $719 → $120
Outcomes for Runner + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $719 (exactly $719)
Top 5% $67k (exactly $67,215)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 49
Announced 37
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Runner
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 496 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $150, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $67k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Runner with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LootFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 10 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair23 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + PsychologicalFair14 devs · median $839 · 12 announced
  4. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $838 · 8 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair12 devs · median $750 · 11 announced
  6. + Time AttackFair15 devs · median $599 · 10 announced
  7. + FPSLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  8. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds12 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  9. + MusicPoor odds16 devs · median $1.2k · 20 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds38 devs · median $1.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds40 devs · median $898 · 64 announced
  12. + Interactive FictionPoor odds10 devs · median $839 · 16 announced

All 123 pairs on the Runner page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
Race The Sun older $9.99 1,974 93% 59k $592k (exactly $591,608) Flippfly LLC
DeathSprint 66 older $19.99 495 83% 15k $297k (exactly $296,852) Sumo Digital
Hans older $4.99 741 85% 22k $111k (exactly $110,928) at0m
Retrowave 2 $4.99 449 88% 13k $67k (exactly $67,215) RewindApp
Sex Apocalypse 2 older $9.99 195 55% 5.9k $58k (exactly $58,442) Octo Games
Zombie Simulator older $4.99 100 81% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,970) ZHANG FAN
Memori · EA $14.99 22 95% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) PracticalNPC
Incaved Runner older $3.99 78 96% 2.3k $9.3k (exactly $9,337) DualWielded
Planet Surfer older $5.99 16 100% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,875) Matthew Christiansen
RealityIQ | الواقع $4.99 9 100% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) kajol
The Ape Tales: An Epic Adventure Game $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Roker Games Studio
UP TO THE SKY · EA $3.99 3 0% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Yiko Games
After The Afterlife $1.99 5 80% 150 $298 (exactly $298) BugBit Studio
ThinkExplosive $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) LongEcho
YKick $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) LevelZeroCore
Cyber Sprinters $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Low-Poly Arcade
Trytka $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Trytka Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.