Do I ship it?

GamesBoard GameBoard Game + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Board Game?

Board Game + Post-apocalyptic

Only 15 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Board Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, River Towns, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Board Game + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $28k → $299 → $6.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Board Game + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,595)
Top 5% $83k (exactly $82,745)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 38
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Board Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, PvP, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Stylized, 3D, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 550 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $82k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Board Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Party-Based RPGFair24 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  2. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  3. + JRPGFair13 devs · median $2.5k · 7 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Female ProtagonistFair35 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair60 devs · median $1.3k · 81 announced
  7. + LGBTQ+Fair8 devs · median $1.2k · 5 announced
  8. + SpaceFair28 devs · median $1.2k · 27 announced
  9. + Alternate HistoryFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  10. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $1.1k · 21 announced
  11. + Party GameFair72 devs · median $899 · 98 announced
  12. + DragonsFair15 devs · median $838 · 15 announced

All 152 pairs on the Board Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nowhere Prophet older $24.99 721 77% 22k $541k (exactly $540,534) Sharkbomb Studios
Ogre older $24.99 223 66% 6.7k $167k (exactly $167,183) Auroch Digital
Mahjong Pretty Girls Battle : School Girls Edition older $14.99 187 64% 5.6k $84k (exactly $84,094) Zoo Corporation
River Towns $14.99 184 89% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) Frogsong Studios
Dawnmaker older $14.99 156 91% 4.7k $70k (exactly $70,153) Arpentor Studio
ZombieCards $5.99 232 48% 7.0k $42k (exactly $41,690) HotScent
Catan VR older $14.99 86 73% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Experiment 7
Neuroshima Hex $9.99 93 72% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Baked Games
Rise of Humanity · EA older $19.99 27 62% 810 $16k (exactly $16,192) Cybernetic Walrus
Legacy of Sin: The Father Sacrifice older $7.99 55 65% 1.7k $13k (exactly $13,184) Absolute Power Game Studio
King of Tokyo - Richard Garfield $19.99 16 68% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Breakfirst
Reptilian Rising $29.99 7 100% 210 $6.3k (exactly $6,298) Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper L… (Gregarious Games, Robot Circus, Hyper Luminal Games)
Deadwalker Chronicles · EA $12.99 9 33% 270 $3.5k (exactly $3,507) Black Phoenix Studio
Fur and Void $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) DFS
PONGBANG · EA $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) LuminDrive
Bunker KYS $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Hitek Games
Pachingo $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Wood&Woods

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.