Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Combat game?

Combat + Post-apocalyptic

Of 315 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 708 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2016 the market median. Revenue is up 175% on the market; 708 games are announced against 174 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 175% on the market, 708 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 315
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $987 → $748 → $1.1k → $1.1k → $1.0k → $1.4k → $3.6k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 315
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,786)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355)
Developers, 2 yr 315
Released games 849
Announced 708
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 175% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 488,519 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 179 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 708 games are announced against 174 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition older $59.99 164,914 79% 4.9M $297M (exactly $296,795,726) Techland
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
Stellar Blade™ $59.99 61,289 93% 1.8M $110M (exactly $110,301,813) SHIFT UP Corporation
Dying Light: The Beast $59.99 59,318 87% 1.8M $107M (exactly $106,754,605) Techland
REMNANT II® older $49.99 46,219 82% 1.4M $69M (exactly $69,314,634) Gunfire Games
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT older $39.99 49,837 91% 1.5M $60M (exactly $59,789,449) KOJIMA PRODUCTIONS
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
Dead Island 2 older $49.99 23,309 77% 699k $35M (exactly $34,956,507) Dambuster Studios
AI LIMIT $34.99 22,833 92% 685k $24M (exactly $23,967,800) Sense Games
Cronos: The New Dawn $59.99 7,753 87% 233k $14M (exactly $13,953,074) Bloober Team
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Remastered $49.99 6,860 84% 206k $10M (exactly $10,287,942) Guerrilla Games, Nixxes Software
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
Gears of War: Reloaded $39.99 3,950 61% 119k $4.7M (exactly $4,738,815) The Coalition

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.