Do I ship it?

GamesSpectacle fighterSpectacle fighter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Spectacle fighter?

Spectacle fighter + Post-apocalyptic

Only 13 developers shipped a Post-apocalyptic Spectacle fighter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, 1348 Ex Voto, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270, ×0.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 35 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 80% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 35 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Spectacle fighter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $328k → $1.1k → $180 → $239 → $28k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Spectacle fighter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 5% $529k (exactly $528,538)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 35
Announced 35
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Spectacle fighter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Spectacle fighter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 56% positive over 867 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $270, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Spectacle fighter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Score AttackFair31 devs · median $4.3k · 29 announced
  2. + HorrorFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 16 announced
  3. + LootPoor odds9 devs · median $65k · 11 announced
  4. + Character Action GamePoor odds22 devs · median $58k · 44 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds8 devs · median $52k · 12 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds16 devs · median $33k · 17 announced
  7. + Sci-fiPoor odds48 devs · median $17k · 82 announced
  8. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $16k · 35 announced
  9. + MythologyPoor odds16 devs · median $11k · 24 announced
  10. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds45 devs · median $7.2k · 86 announced
  11. + FightingPoor odds25 devs · median $7.2k · 40 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds77 devs · median $6.7k · 142 announced

All 99 pairs on the Spectacle fighter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
1348 Ex Voto $24.99 705 53% 21k $529k (exactly $528,538) Sedleo
Project MIKHAIL: A Muv-Luv War Story older $19.99 706 54% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) aNCHOR Inc., fuzz, Inc.
Slave Zero X older $24.99 438 75% 13k $328k (exactly $328,369) Poppy Works
Ultra Age older $24.99 262 80% 7.9k $196k (exactly $196,421) Next Stage Inc., Visual DART Co., Ltd
Blood And Zombies older $14.99 293 58% 8.8k $132k (exactly $131,762) Wild Monkey
Crazy Flasher 7 Mercenary Empire(stand-alone Version) older $3.99 261 52% 7.8k $31k (exactly $31,242) Andy Law
Reptiles: In Hunt older $9.99 97 57% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Corpix Games
Kijutsu Rider $9.99 95 56% 2.9k $28k (exactly $28,472) OmegaMechAnimations
T.D.Z. 3 Dark Way of Stalker older $5.99 71 76% 2.1k $13k (exactly $12,759) Team GZ
Ash & Adam's GOBSMACKED $4.99 37 86% 1.1k $5.5k (exactly $5,539) Ash & Adam's Games
1989 After the War $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) SEEP
Mutant Rage · EA $19.99 2 50% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Animas Games
Devastablance. Mountain Brotherhood $3.00 3 100% 90 $270 (exactly $270) Shvap Games Studio
SICKO SANCTUM 2 $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Jake Stevenson
Skateballers $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Istrebitel RX2
JUMPING JUMP NINJA · EA $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) TeamZ.co.,Ltd
Soldiers vs Zombies: Tower Defense · EA $5.99 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.