Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate game?

Pirates

Of 216 developers who shipped a Pirate game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 396 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×609 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 396 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 396 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 216
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.3k → $2.6k → $1.6k → $2.0k → $2.3k → $1.3k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 216
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,566)
Top 5% $383k (exactly $382,609)
Developers, 2 yr 216
Released games 773
Announced 396
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 106,103 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 118 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 396 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Pirates

71 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Perma Death + Pirates Fair $2.1k 11 devs
  2. Bullet Hell + Pirates Fair $2.0k 14 devs
  3. Interactive Fiction + Pirates Fair $1.3k 7 devs
  4. Hidden Object + Pirates Fair $921 14 devs
  5. Logic + Pirates Fair $629 11 devs
  6. Tabletop + Pirates Fair $599 12 devs
  7. Online Co-Op + Pirates Poor odds $77k 11 devs
  8. Base Building + Pirates Poor odds $17k 8 devs
  9. Immersive Sim + Pirates Poor odds $17k 7 devs
  10. FPS + Pirates Poor odds $17k 9 devs
  11. Procedural Generation + Pirates Poor odds $15k 17 devs
  12. Trading + Pirates Poor odds $15k 12 devs
  13. Sandbox + Pirates Poor odds $15k 24 devs
  14. Open World + Pirates Poor odds $15k 38 devs
  15. Co-op + Pirates Poor odds $12k 15 devs
  16. Crafting + Pirates Poor odds $10k 17 devs
  17. Character Customization + Pirates Poor odds $9.6k 18 devs
  18. Building + Pirates Poor odds $6.0k 17 devs
  19. Visual Novel + Pirates Poor odds $4.9k 13 devs
  20. Physics + Pirates Poor odds $4.5k 16 devs
  21. Exploration + Pirates Poor odds $4.0k 82 devs
  22. Action RPG + Pirates Poor odds $4.0k 25 devs
  23. Survival + Pirates Poor odds $4.0k 26 devs
  24. Sailing + Pirates Poor odds $3.9k 56 devs
  25. RPG + Pirates Poor odds $3.6k 54 devs
  26. Turn-Based Strategy + Pirates Poor odds $3.3k 20 devs
  27. Naval Combat + Pirates Poor odds $3.1k 45 devs
  28. Card Game + Pirates Poor odds $2.9k 10 devs
  29. Simulation + Pirates Poor odds $2.8k 43 devs
  30. Loot + Pirates Poor odds $2.8k 16 devs
  31. Roguelite + Pirates Poor odds $2.7k 31 devs
  32. Resource Management + Pirates Poor odds $2.4k 19 devs
  33. Management + Pirates Poor odds $2.4k 16 devs
  34. Deckbuilding + Pirates Poor odds $2.3k 12 devs
  35. Action + Pirates Poor odds $2.2k 103 devs
  36. Action-Adventure + Pirates Poor odds $2.2k 52 devs
  37. Action Roguelike + Pirates Poor odds $2.1k 22 devs
  38. Roguelike + Pirates Poor odds $2.0k 36 devs
  39. Multiple Endings + Pirates Poor odds $1.8k 13 devs
  40. Platformer + Pirates Poor odds $1.5k 14 devs
  41. Economy + Pirates Poor odds $1.5k 11 devs
  42. Adventure + Pirates Poor odds $1.4k 123 devs
  43. Choices Matter + Pirates Poor odds $1.3k 19 devs
  44. PvE + Pirates Poor odds $1.2k 33 devs
  45. Strategy + Pirates Poor odds $1.2k 64 devs
  46. Tactical + Pirates Poor odds $1.2k 23 devs
  47. Score Attack + Pirates Poor odds $1.2k 12 devs
  48. 3D Platformer + Pirates Poor odds $1.2k 10 devs
  49. Puzzle + Pirates Poor odds $959 32 devs
  50. Turn-Based Tactics + Pirates Poor odds $899 23 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 2023 · $21M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 older $39.99 17,281 91% 518k $21M (exactly $20,732,016) Koei Tecmo
Return of the Obra Dinn older $19.99 32,309 96% 969k $19M (exactly $19,375,707) Lucas Pope
One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 older $51.98 8,458 79% 254k $13M (exactly $13,189,405) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Assassin’s Creed® Rogue older $19.99 21,310 86% 639k $13M (exactly $12,779,607) Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Ys X: Proud Nordics $59.99 336 75% 10k $605k (exactly $604,699) Nihon Falcom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.