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Should I ship a Pirate Multiple Endings game?
Multiple Endings + Pirates
Only 13 developers shipped a Pirate Multiple Endings game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mark of the Deep, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×219 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) |
| Top 25% | $27k (exactly $27,014) |
| Top 5% | $137k (exactly $137,331) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 13 |
| Released games | 36 |
| Announced | 20 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Multiple Endings
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Pirates
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Multiple Endings; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Stylized
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 666 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Multiple Endings with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + WuxiaFair
- + Level EditorFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + SuperheroFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + GamblingFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Score AttackFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + Arena ShooterFair
Comparable games
Return of the Obra Dinn 2018 · $19M 
Sea Dogs: To Each His Own 2012 · $867k 
Mark of the Deep 2025 · $137k 
Erannorth Renaissance 2025 · $112k 
Table of Tales: The Crooked Crown 2021 · $66k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
| | Sea Dogs: To Each His Own | older | $14.99 | 1,927 72% | 58k | $867k (exactly $866,572) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Mark of the Deep | $19.99 | 229 73% | 6.9k | $137k (exactly $137,331) | Mad Mimic | |
| | Erannorth Renaissance | $19.99 | 186 81% | 5.6k | $112k (exactly $111,544) | Spyridon Thalassinos | |
| | Table of Tales: The Crooked Crown | older | $19.99 | 110 77% | 3.3k | $66k (exactly $65,967) | Tin Man Games, Zero One Studio |
 | Curse of Black Bone | older | $14.99 | 123 61% | 3.7k | $55k (exactly $55,313) | Entropy Digital Entertainment |
 | Overfall | older | $4.99 | 358 75% | 11k | $54k (exactly $53,593) | Pera Games |
 | Bilkins' Folly | older | $19.99 | 88 89% | 2.6k | $53k (exactly $52,774) | Webbysoft |
 | Sea Chronicles | $9.99 | 154 90% | 4.6k | $46k (exactly $46,154) | Madi Abdykarimov | |
 | Wet Sand | · EA older | $9.99 | 113 93% | 3.4k | $34k (exactly $33,866) | Likho Games |
 | Red Rogue Sea | $16.99 | 53 64% | 1.6k | $27k (exactly $27,014) | Firemage Studios | |
 | Tales From The Under-Realm: Lilith | $14.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $4.9k (exactly $4,947) | Winter Wolves | |
 | This Be Mutiny | $6.99 | 16 87% | 480 | $3.4k (exactly $3,355) | Goodberry Games | |
 | The Chaser's Voyage | $19.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $1.8k (exactly $1,799) | Bright at Midnight: A Game Studio | |
 | Reef Defense | $9.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Swift Creek Games | |
 | Scarlet Sails | $3.99 | 6 33% | 180 | $718 (exactly $718) | Hosted Games | |
 | Pirate Den | · EA | $4.99 | 4 25% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Patate Douce Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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