Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Survival game?

Survival + Pirates

Of 26 developers who shipped a Pirate Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $9.3M, ×14904 the market median. Revenue is up 2775% on the market; 58 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 2775% on the market, 58 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $75k → $5.7k → $1.4k → $959 → $156k → $2.7k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $4.0k (exactly $3,979)
Top 25% $156k (exactly $156,496)
Top 5% $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 79
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2775% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 70,331 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $9.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Blazing Sails older $14.99 8,361 87% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,759,942) Get Up Games, Iceberg Interactive
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Space Pirates And Zombies 2 older $19.99 2,734 78% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,639,580) MinMax Games Ltd.
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Out of Reach older $14.99 2,390 54% 72k $1.1M (exactly $1,074,783) Space Boat Studios
Salt older $14.99 1,959 75% 59k $881k (exactly $880,962) Lavaboots Studios
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Forsaken Isle $8.99 462 70% 14k $125k (exactly $124,601) Smoodlez
Dig, Dig, Die $7.99 321 64% 9.6k $77k (exactly $76,944) Alice Games
Deep Space Outpost $15.99 32 71% 960 $15k (exactly $15,350) Niris Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.