Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Pirates

Of 52 developers who shipped a Pirate Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×18868 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 113 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 113 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $1.0k → $2.7k → $1.4k → $17k → $1.5k → $674 (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $119k (exactly $118,770)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,849,225)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 161
Announced 113
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Adventure
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 87,865 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Assassin’s Creed® Rogue older $19.99 21,310 86% 639k $13M (exactly $12,779,607) Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
ONE PIECE ODYSSEY older $39.99 2,502 78% 75k $3.0M (exactly $3,001,649) ILCA, Inc.
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Wavetale older $29.99 2,579 88% 77k $2.3M (exactly $2,320,326) Thunderful Development
Owlboy older $19.99 3,679 85% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,206,296) D-Pad Studio
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG older $14.99 1,778 69% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) HeroCraft
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
DAVY x JONES · EA $17.99 389 82% 12k $210k (exactly $209,943) PARASIGHT
Shantae Advance: Risky Revolution $24.99 267 85% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) WayForward, Limited Run Games
Captain Blood $24.99 266 77% 8.0k $199k (exactly $199,420) Seawolf Studio, General Arcade
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.