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Should I ship a Pirate Open World game?
Open World + Pirates
Of 38 developers who shipped a Pirate Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 87 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $15k, ×9.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×28765 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 87 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $15k (exactly $14,564) |
| Top 25% | $249k (exactly $249,444) |
| Top 5% | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 38 |
| Released games | 154 |
| Announced | 87 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Pirates
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Adventure
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 105,970 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 87 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M 
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M 
Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M 
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 2023 · $21M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
| | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
| | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 | older | $39.99 | 17,281 91% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,732,016) | Koei Tecmo |
 | One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 | older | $51.98 | 8,458 79% | 254k | $13M (exactly $13,189,405) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Assassin’s Creed® Rogue | older | $19.99 | 21,310 86% | 639k | $13M (exactly $12,779,607) | Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev |
 | Marauders | · EA older | $29.99 | 13,505 68% | 405k | $12M (exactly $12,150,448) | Small Impact Games |
 | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
 | SAND: Raiders of Sophie | · EA | $24.99 | 12,485 49% | 375k | $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) | Hologryph, TowerHaus |
 | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
 | The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu | $29.99 | 3,107 69% | 93k | $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) | ACE Team | |
 | Age of Water | $29.99 | 2,883 72% | 86k | $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) | Three Whales Studio | |
 | Salt 2: Shores of Gold | $19.99 | 2,182 85% | 65k | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) | Lavaboots Studios | |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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