Do I ship it?

Games3D Platformer3D Platformer + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate 3D Platformer?

3D Platformer + Pirates

Only 10 developers shipped a Pirate 3D Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, hololive GoroGoro Mountain, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $13k, ×22 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 10 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 10 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
3D Platformer + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $60 → $1.2k → $148 → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for 3D Platformer + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,794)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $13,640)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 42
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
3D Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 77% positive over 82 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $13k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

3D Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TransportationFair13 devs · median $3.1k · 12 announced
  2. + MiningFair11 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  3. + Dating SimFair36 devs · median $748 · 29 announced
  4. + GolfFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  5. + Visual NovelFair44 devs · median $716 · 39 announced
  6. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  7. + Survival HorrorFair111 devs · median $539 · 104 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  9. + AutomationFair25 devs · median $450 · 21 announced
  10. + OffroadLong shot14 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + Looter ShooterLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  12. + CatsLong shot66 devs · median $420 · 74 announced

All 216 pairs on the 3D Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wavetale older $29.99 2,579 88% 77k $2.3M (exactly $2,320,326) Thunderful Development
Koa and the Five Pirates of Mara older $19.99 184 90% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Chibig, Undercoders
Only Up ! older $6.99 216 26% 6.5k $45k (exactly $45,295) WGI GAMING
Angry Penguin older $1.99 328 92% 9.8k $20k (exactly $19,582) PAIN PEPPER
Only Up! 1 older $4.99 101 42% 3.0k $15k (exactly $15,120) WGI GAMING, WGI GAMING
hololive GoroGoro Mountain $12.99 35 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $13,640) BeXide Inc.
Neko Ghost, Jump! · EA older $9.99 28 89% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Burgos Games
Cloud Escape older $4.99 30 90% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) endeetree
Kraken Odyssey older $14.99 7 42% 210 $3.1k (exactly $3,148) Honikou Games
Flynn and Freckles older $9.99 10 20% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Rookie Hero Games
Pumuckl and the Crown of the Pirate King $29.99 2 50% 60 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Quantumfrog
Cannonball Crew $2.99 20 85% 600 $1.8k (exactly $1,794) Sweetbeard
Girl Island · EA $4.99 9 66% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) Little Fish Studio
Only Up 3 $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) WGI GAMING
Blackbeard's Treasure $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) SAT-BOX
SkullPirates $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Arcade Distillery
Captain Sharkbait: Voyage for Treasure $0.99 5 80% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Dylan Gray
Stranded at Sea $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Owen Delwiche, Preston Lindley, James G… (Owen Delwiche, Preston Lindley, James Goodwin)
Pirate Ghost Ship $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hawk Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.