Do I ship it?

GamesPlatformerPlatformer + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Platformer?

Platformer + Pirates

Only 14 developers shipped a Pirate Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Shantae Advance: Risky Revolution, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×319 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Platformer + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.9k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $1.5k
Outcomes for Platformer + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $41,979)
Top 5% $200k (exactly $200,170)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 77
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Platformer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Metroidvania
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 736 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Platformer with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  2. + PinballStrong odds10 devs · median $2.5k · 6 announced
  3. + Combat RacingFair28 devs · median $899 · 38 announced
  4. + FMVFair9 devs · median $899 · 10 announced
  5. + SimulationFair281 devs · median $628 · 235 announced
  6. + Grid-Based MovementFair23 devs · median $539 · 18 announced
  7. + AutomationFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  8. + Turn-Based TacticsLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $7.2k · 90 announced
  10. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds32 devs · median $6.5k · 90 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $5.8k · 38 announced
  12. + SkateboardingPoor odds14 devs · median $4.8k · 23 announced

All 206 pairs on the Platformer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wavetale older $29.99 2,579 88% 77k $2.3M (exactly $2,320,326) Thunderful Development
Owlboy older $19.99 3,679 85% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,206,296) D-Pad Studio
Shantae and the Pirate's Curse older $19.99 1,843 94% 55k $1.1M (exactly $1,105,247) WayForward
Shantae: Half-Genie Hero Ultimate Edition older $29.99 901 90% 27k $811k (exactly $810,630) WayForward
Shantae: Risky's Revenge - Director's Cut older $9.99 1,215 87% 36k $364k (exactly $364,136) WayForward
Flinthook older $14.99 600 73% 18k $270k (exactly $269,820) Tribute Games Inc.
Shantae Advance: Risky Revolution $24.99 267 85% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) WayForward, Limited Run Games
Koa and the Five Pirates of Mara older $19.99 184 90% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Chibig, Undercoders
Space Adventure Cobra - The Awakening $24.99 119 77% 3.6k $89k (exactly $89,214) Magic Pockets
Only Up ! older $6.99 216 26% 6.5k $45k (exactly $45,295) WGI GAMING
Cape Hideous $5.99 242 98% 7.3k $43k (exactly $43,487) Jake Clover
LIFTED $19.99 70 92% 2.1k $42k (exactly $41,979) Adventure Works L.L.C.
Goldfish $14.99 10 80% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Gabry Corti
Pumuckl and the Crown of the Pirate King $29.99 2 50% 60 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Quantumfrog
Roxy Raccoon 3: Troubles in Time $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Sinomod Studios
Kiana & Biscuit - Pirates on a Visit! $9.99 4 50% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) SpicyFuse
Only Up 3 $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) WGI GAMING
Pile Up, Pirate! $2.99 9 100% 270 $807 (exactly $807) Red Ridge Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.