Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Trading game?

Trading + Pirates

Only 12 developers shipped a Pirate Trading game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×609 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 32 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 32 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $10k → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $15k (exactly $15,350)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $383k (exactly $382,609)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 46
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Trading
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,545 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Windward older $9.99 2,668 79% 80k $800k (exactly $799,600) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Horizon's Gate older $19.99 1,213 94% 36k $727k (exactly $727,436) Rad Codex
Port Royale 3 older $14.99 1,204 72% 36k $541k (exactly $541,439) Gaming Minds Studios
Hero of the Kingdom II older $8.99 1,900 95% 57k $512k (exactly $512,430) Lonely Troops
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Void Destroyer 2 older $9.99 652 80% 20k $195k (exactly $195,404) Iteration 11
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Following Seas · EA $14.99 153 76% 4.6k $69k (exactly $68,804) Whipstaff Games
Terror of the Seven Seas $14.99 108 78% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Cutthroat Games
Deep Space Outpost $15.99 32 71% 960 $15k (exactly $15,350) Niris Games
Pirate Cove Simulator $9.99 34 61% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Kool2Play
Clicker Clicker Treasure Picker · EA $2.99 10 70% 300 $897 (exactly $897) EYVALON ENTERTAINMENT
Exploration $6.99 3 66% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Software 2000
Star Corsairs: Fractured Frontier · EA $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Tagir Nabiullin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.