Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Pirates

Only 12 developers shipped a Pirate Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Down with the Ship, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×585 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 32 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,308)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,014)
Top 5% $367k (exactly $367,405)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 26
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 88% positive over 1,066 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 32 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pirates Outlaws older $19.99 715 80% 21k $429k (exactly $428,785) Fabled Game
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Dead Man's Draw older $6.99 439 83% 13k $92k (exactly $92,058) Stardock Entertainment
Pirates Outlaws 2: Heritage · EA $14.99 105 60% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Fabled Game
Red Rogue Sea $16.99 53 64% 1.6k $27k (exactly $27,014) Firemage Studios
CosmoPirates older $11.99 65 81% 2.0k $23k (exactly $23,380) BlackMoon Design
Furry Sex: Pirates 🏴‍☠️ older $6.99 104 67% 3.1k $22k (exactly $21,809) Furry Tails
HoloSeeker $3.99 66 89% 2.0k $7.9k (exactly $7,900) Imoyokan
Sunken Stones $11.99 14 100% 420 $5.0k (exactly $5,036) Spritewrench
Pirates - Digital Strategy Game · EA older $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Twin Dimensional Productions
Becoming Captain - The Roguelike Deckbuilder $10.99 7 100% 210 $2.3k (exactly $2,308) Le Havre Création
Hullbreaker · EA $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Dalton
Sail: Evolved Tides $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Aellora Games
The Drowned Deal $3.99 1 0% 30 $120 (exactly $120) RB Games Studio
YohohoDice · EA $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SecDeveloper

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.