Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Building game?

Building + Pirates

Only 17 developers shipped a Pirate Building game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windrose, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 33 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $33k → $42k → $6.3k → $3.3k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $43M (exactly $43,089,332)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 58
Announced 33
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Survival, Action, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 52,315 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $43M.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 33 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Space Pirates And Zombies 2 older $19.99 2,734 78% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,639,580) MinMax Games Ltd.
Out of Reach older $14.99 2,390 54% 72k $1.1M (exactly $1,074,783) Space Boat Studios
Bulwark: Falconeer Chronicles older $19.99 1,381 85% 41k $828k (exactly $828,186) Tomas Sala
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Republic of Pirates older $24.99 420 70% 13k $315k (exactly $314,874) Crazy Goat Games
Sins of a Solar Empire: Trinity® older $9.99 687 78% 21k $206k (exactly $205,894) Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment)
Autonauts vs Piratebots older $19.99 334 80% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Denki
Forsaken Isle $8.99 462 70% 14k $125k (exactly $124,601) Smoodlez
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
Resort Island Simulator $9.99 58 74% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) Tenjin Games
Leaks In Space · EA $14.99 14 71% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Frostech Game Studio
Seven Seas: Adventures · EA $24.99 8 25% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Concept Games
Treasure's Mine! $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) FatFishGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.