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Should I ship a Pirate Adventure game?
Adventure + Pirates
Of 123 developers who shipped a Pirate Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 199 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×397 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 199 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $269 (exactly $269) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) |
| Top 25% | $34k (exactly $33,736) |
| Top 5% | $249k (exactly $249,444) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 123 |
| Released games | 446 |
| Announced | 199 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 88,656 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 199 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + SamuraiFair
- + FMVFair
- + PinballFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + SportsFair
- + GolfFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + Time AttackFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M 
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced 2026 · $48M 
Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M 
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 2023 · $21M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
| | Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced | $59.99 | 26,652 81% | 800k | $48M (exactly $47,965,604) | Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania) | |
| | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 | older | $39.99 | 17,281 91% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,732,016) | Koei Tecmo |
 | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
 | One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 | older | $51.98 | 8,458 79% | 254k | $13M (exactly $13,189,405) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Assassin’s Creed® Rogue | older | $19.99 | 21,310 86% | 639k | $13M (exactly $12,779,607) | Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev |
 | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
 | Ruined King: A League of Legends Story™ | older | $29.99 | 10,623 88% | 319k | $9.6M (exactly $9,557,513) | Airship Syndicate |
 | The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu | $29.99 | 3,107 69% | 93k | $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) | ACE Team | |
 | Salt 2: Shores of Gold | $19.99 | 2,182 85% | 65k | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) | Lavaboots Studios | |
 | Forgotten Seas | $24.99 | 475 75% | 14k | $356k (exactly $356,108) | Pangea Game Studios | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | Windward Horizon | $19.99 | 401 79% | 12k | $240k (exactly $240,480) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. | |
 | Dead Weight | $12.99 | 575 82% | 17k | $224k (exactly $224,078) | Klukva Games | |
 | Shantae Advance: Risky Revolution | $24.99 | 267 85% | 8.0k | $200k (exactly $200,170) | WayForward, Limited Run Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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