Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Pirates

Only 11 developers shipped a Pirate Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dig, Dig, Die, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.8k. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 14 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Perma Death + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,063)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,014)
Top 5% $77k (exactly $76,944)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 30
Announced 14
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Perma Death
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 577 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $76k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 14 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  7. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  9. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  10. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  11. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced
  12. + PuzzleFair107 devs · median $536 · 110 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG older $14.99 1,778 69% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) HeroCraft
Dig, Dig, Die $7.99 321 64% 9.6k $77k (exactly $76,944) Alice Games
XO · EA older $19.99 82 87% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Jumpdrive Studios
Void Marauders $13.99 106 77% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Autarca
Red Rogue Sea $16.99 53 64% 1.6k $27k (exactly $27,014) Firemage Studios
A pirate quartermaster older $17.99 50 78% 1.5k $27k (exactly $26,985) Ivan Armandy
Angvik 2 older $5.00 177 94% 5.3k $27k (exactly $26,550) Alastair John Jack
Reclaim The Sea $11.99 41 75% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) 1LastGame
Lord O' Pirates $4.99 21 85% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) One Flow Man
Captain Puff MacFly $2.99 23 95% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) MVCAO Studios
The Last Strand $13.00 5 100% 150 $2.0k (exactly $1,950) Rainbow Lotus Studio
The Chaser's Voyage $19.99 3 100% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Bright at Midnight: A Game Studio
Coup Ahoo $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Antti Haavikko
Caribbean Prospector · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Denis Salanta

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.