Do I ship it?

GamesAction RPGAction RPG + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Action RPG?

Action RPG + Pirates

Of 25 developers who shipped a Pirate Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×404 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action RPG + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $1.3k → $49k → $2.2k → $4.0k → $2.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action RPG + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,366)
Top 5% $605k (exactly $604,699)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 73
Announced 37
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action RPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Action RPG; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 8,920 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + NavalFair17 devs · median $15k · 11 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpFair68 devs · median $6.0k · 82 announced
  3. + WesternFair13 devs · median $5.5k · 15 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $5.5k · 56 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot35 devs · median $450 · 33 announced
  6. + WuxiaPoor odds7 devs · median $198k · 28 announced
  7. + Character Action GamePoor odds14 devs · median $105k · 55 announced
  8. + MechsPoor odds21 devs · median $59k · 43 announced
  9. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $58k · 35 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds31 devs · median $44k · 47 announced
  11. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds23 devs · median $26k · 69 announced
  12. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced

All 211 pairs on the Action RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Gothic II: Gold Edition older $19.99 12,637 93% 379k $7.6M (exactly $7,578,409) Piranha Bytes
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
Caribbean Legend older $39.99 2,860 74% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) BlackMark Studio
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Risen 3 - Titan Lords older $14.99 4,403 73% 132k $2.0M (exactly $1,980,029) Piranha Bytes
Cat Quest III older $19.99 3,108 94% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,863,868) The Gentlebros
Risen 2: Dark Waters older $9.99 3,533 80% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,058,840) Piranha Bytes
Sea Dogs: To Each His Own older $14.99 1,927 72% 58k $867k (exactly $866,572) BlackMark Studio
Tempest: Pirate Action RPG older $14.99 1,778 69% 53k $800k (exactly $799,567) HeroCraft
Ys X: Proud Nordics $59.99 336 75% 10k $605k (exactly $604,699) Nihon Falcom
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Revenge of Black Bone $14.99 112 64% 3.4k $50k (exactly $50,366) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Terror of the Seven Seas $14.99 108 78% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Cutthroat Games
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Mystical Maritime Adventure $8.99 54 77% 1.6k $15k (exactly $14,564) Ze_Yu, 烟熏渔

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.