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Should I ship a Pirate Action RPG?
Action RPG + Pirates
Of 25 developers who shipped a Pirate Action RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×2.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×404 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $628 (exactly $628) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.0k (exactly $4,042) |
| Top 25% | $50k (exactly $50,366) |
| Top 5% | $605k (exactly $604,699) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 73 |
| Announced | 37 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Action RPG
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Pirates
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- Action RPG; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Open World
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 8,920 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Action RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + NavalFair
- + Local Co-OpFair
- + WesternFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + Walking SimulatorLong shot
- + WuxiaPoor odds
- + Character Action GamePoor odds
- + MechsPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + Bullet HeavenPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
| | Gothic II: Gold Edition | older | $19.99 | 12,637 93% | 379k | $7.6M (exactly $7,578,409) | Piranha Bytes |
| | Skull and Bones | older | $29.99 | 4,650 65% | 140k | $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) | Ubisoft Singapore |
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Pixel Piracy | older | $14.99 | 5,713 65% | 171k | $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) | Vitali Kirpu |
| | Risen 3 - Titan Lords | older | $14.99 | 4,403 73% | 132k | $2.0M (exactly $1,980,029) | Piranha Bytes |
| | Cat Quest III | older | $19.99 | 3,108 94% | 93k | $1.9M (exactly $1,863,868) | The Gentlebros |
| | Risen 2: Dark Waters | older | $9.99 | 3,533 80% | 106k | $1.1M (exactly $1,058,840) | Piranha Bytes |
| | Sea Dogs: To Each His Own | older | $14.99 | 1,927 72% | 58k | $867k (exactly $866,572) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Tempest: Pirate Action RPG | older | $14.99 | 1,778 69% | 53k | $800k (exactly $799,567) | HeroCraft |
| | Ys X: Proud Nordics | $59.99 | 336 75% | 10k | $605k (exactly $604,699) | Nihon Falcom | |
| | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
| | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
| | Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey | $14.99 | 348 79% | 10k | $156k (exactly $156,496) | World of Poly | |
| | SeaCret 1 | · EA | $39.99 | 99 61% | 3.0k | $119k (exactly $118,770) | Dalas |
| | Revenge of Black Bone | $14.99 | 112 64% | 3.4k | $50k (exactly $50,366) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
| | Terror of the Seven Seas | $14.99 | 108 78% | 3.2k | $49k (exactly $48,568) | Cutthroat Games | |
| | Curse of Pirates | $9.99 | 121 80% | 3.6k | $36k (exactly $36,264) | Funky Parrot | |
| | Mystical Maritime Adventure | $8.99 | 54 77% | 1.6k | $15k (exactly $14,564) | Ze_Yu, 烟熏渔 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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