Do I ship it?

GamesActionAction + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Action game?

Action + Pirates

Of 103 developers who shipped a Pirate Action game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 185 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×4130 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 185 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 185 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 103
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $1.6k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $7.4k → $3.1k → $1.3k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 103
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,568)
Top 5% $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835)
Developers, 2 yr 103
Released games 386
Announced 185
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Action; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 103,616 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 64 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 185 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair25 devs · median $14k · 30 announced
  3. + PinballFair42 devs · median $2.6k · 48 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair43 devs · median $1.8k · 40 announced
  5. + Football (American)Fair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  6. + BaseballFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  7. + BilliardsFair19 devs · median $958 · 25 announced
  8. + IdlerFair225 devs · median $898 · 292 announced
  9. + TennisFair23 devs · median $628 · 12 announced
  10. + Time AttackFair90 devs · median $599 · 110 announced
  11. + TabletopFair71 devs · median $505 · 86 announced
  12. + WuxiaPoor odds9 devs · median $189k · 36 announced

All 288 pairs on the Action page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Assassin's Creed Black Flag Resynced $59.99 26,652 81% 800k $48M (exactly $47,965,604) Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, U… (Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Barcelona, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft India, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Romania)
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 older $39.99 17,281 91% 518k $21M (exactly $20,732,016) Koei Tecmo
One Piece Pirate Warriors 3 older $51.98 8,458 79% 254k $13M (exactly $13,189,405) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Assassin’s Creed® Rogue older $19.99 21,310 86% 639k $13M (exactly $12,779,607) Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Ruined King: A League of Legends Story™ older $29.99 10,623 88% 319k $9.6M (exactly $9,557,513) Airship Syndicate
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Ys X: Proud Nordics $59.99 336 75% 10k $605k (exactly $604,699) Nihon Falcom
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Captain Wayne - Vacation Desperation $9.99 1,019 97% 31k $305k (exactly $305,394) Ciaran Games LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.