Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Strategy game?

Strategy + Pirates

Of 64 developers who shipped a Pirate Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×397 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 120 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 120 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.3k → $23k → $1.6k → $299 → $3.4k → $2.3k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 5% $249k (exactly $249,444)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 235
Announced 120
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Turn-Based Strategy, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 6,476 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Naval Action older $19.99 10,187 52% 306k $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) Bermuda Computer Club
Corsair Cove $39.99 3,026 85% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Limbic Entertainment
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Space Pirates And Zombies 2 older $19.99 2,734 78% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,639,580) MinMax Games Ltd.
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Bulwark: Falconeer Chronicles older $19.99 1,381 85% 41k $828k (exactly $828,186) Tomas Sala
Airship: Kingdoms Adrift older $29.99 902 75% 27k $812k (exactly $811,529) Revolution Industry
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Rise of Piracy · EA $15.99 520 77% 16k $249k (exactly $249,444) IrishJohnGames
Dead Weight $12.99 575 82% 17k $224k (exactly $224,078) Klukva Games
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip
Flint: Treasure of Oblivion $24.99 92 51% 2.8k $69k (exactly $68,972) Savage Level
Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean $14.99 119 33% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Fishing Cactus
Terror of the Seven Seas $14.99 108 78% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Cutthroat Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.