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Should I ship a Pirate Sandbox?
Sandbox + Pirates
Of 24 developers who shipped a Pirate Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $15k, ×24 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 52 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $839 (exactly $839) |
|---|---|
| Median | $15k (exactly $14,992) |
| Top 25% | $224k (exactly $224,078) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 83 |
| Announced | 52 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $12.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Exploration, Sailing
- Price point
- $12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 8,166 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
Naval Action 2019 · $6.1M 
Corsair Cove 2026 · $3.6M 
Caribbean Legend 2024 · $3.4M 
Pixel Piracy 2014 · $2.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | Naval Action | older | $19.99 | 10,187 52% | 306k | $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) | Bermuda Computer Club |
| | Corsair Cove | $39.99 | 3,026 85% | 91k | $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) | Limbic Entertainment | |
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Pixel Piracy | older | $14.99 | 5,713 65% | 171k | $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) | Vitali Kirpu |
 | Risen 3 - Titan Lords | older | $14.99 | 4,403 73% | 132k | $2.0M (exactly $1,980,029) | Piranha Bytes |
 | Sid Meier's Pirates! | older | $9.99 | 6,198 94% | 186k | $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) | Firaxis Games |
 | Space Pirates And Zombies 2 | older | $19.99 | 2,734 78% | 82k | $1.6M (exactly $1,639,580) | MinMax Games Ltd. |
 | Salt 2: Shores of Gold | $19.99 | 2,182 85% | 65k | $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) | Lavaboots Studios | |
 | Out of Reach | older | $14.99 | 2,390 54% | 72k | $1.1M (exactly $1,074,783) | Space Boat Studios |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | Windward Horizon | $19.99 | 401 79% | 12k | $240k (exactly $240,480) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. | |
 | Dead Weight | $12.99 | 575 82% | 17k | $224k (exactly $224,078) | Klukva Games | |
 | Forsaken Isle | $8.99 | 462 70% | 14k | $125k (exactly $124,601) | Smoodlez | |
 | ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles | · EA | $8.99 | 192 96% | 5.8k | $52k (exactly $51,782) | Tomas Sala |
 | Revenge of Black Bone | $14.99 | 112 64% | 3.4k | $50k (exactly $50,366) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Resort Island Simulator | $9.99 | 58 74% | 1.7k | $17k (exactly $17,383) | Tenjin Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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