Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Crafting game?

Crafting + Pirates

Only 17 developers shipped a Pirate Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windrose, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is up 810% on the market; 38 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 810% on the market, 38 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $42k → $36k → $17k → $156k → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Median $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 25% $156k (exactly $156,496)
Top 5% $43M (exactly $43,089,332)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 53
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 810% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, PvE
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 54,564 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $43M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio
Salt 2: Shores of Gold $19.99 2,182 85% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Lavaboots Studios
Out of Reach older $14.99 2,390 54% 72k $1.1M (exactly $1,074,783) Space Boat Studios
Salt older $14.99 1,959 75% 59k $881k (exactly $880,962) Lavaboots Studios
Stranded Sails - Explorers of the Cursed Islands older $24.99 785 72% 24k $589k (exactly $588,514) Alchemist Interactive
The Brew Barons older $21.99 828 75% 25k $546k (exactly $546,232) Lifetap Studios
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Forsaken Isle $8.99 462 70% 14k $125k (exactly $124,601) Smoodlez
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
Dreaming Isles $6.99 79 51% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,566) YawningDad
Pirate Cove Simulator $9.99 34 61% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Kool2Play
Trident's Tale $19.99 16 68% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) 3DClouds

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.