Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Physics game?

Physics + Pirates

Only 16 developers shipped a Pirate Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pirates VR: Jolly Roger, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×202 the market median. Revenue is up 530% on the market; 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 530% on the market, 39 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $240 → $4.8k → $1.8k → $6.3k → $52k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $56,330)
Top 5% $127k (exactly $127,136)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 50
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 530% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,372 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Walkabout Mini Golf VR 2021 · $2.3M Sail Forth 2022 · $362k Sea of Craft 2023 · $173k Pirates VR: Jolly Roger 2025 · $127k Trash Sailors: Co-Op Trash Raft Simulator 2021 · $112k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
Sail Forth older $19.99 604 92% 18k $362k (exactly $362,219) Festive Vector
Sea of Craft older $14.99 385 70% 12k $173k (exactly $173,134) Wizard Games
Pirates VR: Jolly Roger $19.99 212 76% 6.4k $127k (exactly $127,136) Split Light Studio
Trash Sailors: Co-Op Trash Raft Simulator older $19.99 187 67% 5.6k $112k (exactly $112,144) fluckyMachine
Last Pirates: Die Together · EA $7.99 325 76% 9.8k $78k (exactly $77,902) RetroStyle Games
Dig, Dig, Die $7.99 321 64% 9.6k $77k (exactly $76,944) Alice Games
Pinball Wicked $7.99 235 87% 7.1k $56k (exactly $56,330) Formslingers
ShipShaper: Falconeer Chronicles · EA $8.99 192 96% 5.8k $52k (exactly $51,782) Tomas Sala
Only Up ! older $6.99 216 26% 6.5k $45k (exactly $45,295) WGI GAMING
hololive GoroGoro Mountain $12.99 35 77% 1.1k $14k (exactly $13,640) BeXide Inc.
Leaks In Space · EA $14.99 14 71% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Frostech Game Studio
Goldfish $14.99 10 80% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Gabry Corti
Cannonball Crew $2.99 20 85% 600 $1.8k (exactly $1,794) Sweetbeard
Only Up 3 $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) WGI GAMING

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.