Do I ship it?

GamesInteractive FictionInteractive Fiction + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Interactive Fiction?

Interactive Fiction + Pirates

Only 7 developers shipped a Pirate Interactive Fiction in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Erannorth Renaissance, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $720. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 7 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 7 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Interactive Fiction + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Interactive Fiction + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $43,487)
Top 5% $112k (exactly $111,544)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 29
Announced 7
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Interactive Fiction
effort 1 / 10 · high · prose plus a state machine
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Interactive Fiction
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,124 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Interactive Fiction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVFair164 devs · median $36k · 162 announced
  2. + Match 3Fair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair41 devs · median $1.8k · 52 announced
  4. + SportsFair19 devs · median $1.5k · 19 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair160 devs · median $1.4k · 144 announced
  6. + DrivingFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  7. + DiplomacyFair12 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Board GameFair9 devs · median $657 · 12 announced
  10. + SnowFair10 devs · median $478 · 12 announced
  11. + BuildingFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  12. + SpellingPoor odds8 devs · median $18k · 12 announced

All 169 pairs on the Interactive Fiction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Nelly Cootalot: The Fowl Fleet older $19.99 233 94% 7.0k $140k (exactly $139,730) Alasdair Beckett-King, Application Syst… (Alasdair Beckett-King, Application Systems Heidelberg)
Erannorth Renaissance $19.99 186 81% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Spyridon Thalassinos
Table of Tales: The Crooked Crown older $19.99 110 77% 3.3k $66k (exactly $65,967) Tin Man Games, Zero One Studio
Curse of Black Bone older $14.99 123 61% 3.7k $55k (exactly $55,313) Entropy Digital Entertainment
Cape Hideous $5.99 242 98% 7.3k $43k (exactly $43,487) Jake Clover
Hazeron Starship older $19.99 55 70% 1.7k $33k (exactly $32,984) Hazeron Freehold LLC
Heileen 3: New Horizons older $24.99 27 77% 810 $20k (exactly $20,242) Winter Wolves
Choice of the Pirate older $4.99 107 92% 3.2k $16k (exactly $16,018) Choice of Games
Ghost In The Mirror older $9.99 21 85% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Stefano Mazzotta (Il Sui)
Arizona Rose and the Pirates' Riddles older $9.99 20 85% 600 $6.0k (exactly $5,994) Anawiki Games
Seven Seas Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $15.99 6 100% 180 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Anawiki Games
Silk and Sabre · EA $10.99 4 75% 120 $1.3k (exactly $1,319) JellyFluff Games
Scarlet Sails $3.99 6 33% 180 $718 (exactly $718) Hosted Games
The Lighthouse of Black Salt $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Light Source
ChronoQuest VR $7.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Wopper

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.